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We& #39;ve been reminiscing today about the old 2007-12 science blogging days. Which reminds me. I get asked quite a lot of COVID stuff by friends/ acquaintances/ folk on Twitter/Fb. And one of my repeat responses is "As it& #39;s a new virus & disease, we don& #39;t know [X] for sure yet". 1/
One of the things scientists get to know working in science over time is that there is *lots* of uncertainty. And replacing that with certainty takes time, lots of work, loads of data gathering & analysis, some wrong turns, lots of disc& #39;n & arguing and... did I mention time? 2/
People find it hard to grasp that science & medicine can& #39;t answer the kind of questions about COVID that it can about & #39;flu. But we& #39;ve been studying influenza, intensively, for a century & more. We& #39;ve been studying COVID for about six months. And viruses vary in their tricks. 3/
One of the key things that the epidemic control measures are doing is buying us time to find out more about the disease. You can already see progress. Better understanding of transmission (more airborne than first appreciated). Better management of the disease in patients... 4/
..and there will, assuredly, be more to come. Better understanding of how the virus works in humans leads to better treatments, e.g. which existing ones work, or work best. Hopefully time will give us vaccines. And even new anti-C19 antiviral drugs. But it all takes.. time. 5/
A further subtlety: of the COVID- related things we are trying to move from & #39;unknown& #39; to & #39;not certain& #39; to & #39;pretty sure& #39;, along the way there will be variable degrees of certainty, as what we know gets updated. At any time, some things will be much more certain than others. 6/
This is often challenging to explain to the wider public. I don& #39;t envy govt advisers like the CMO & CSO. And we should be grateful for those like @edyong209 who try & convey the nuances accurately to a broad audience. But one thing is clear; with time, things get... clearer. 7/
In the meantime: what can people do? Finding out more is good, but do also ask: how sure? Real scientists can, on the whole, put a reasoned/reasonable estimate on how certain they are. And beware the *apparent* certainty with which fringe views are conveyed. Esp on Facebook. 8/
Finally: do what you can to help buy time. Flu vax if in a risk gp. Hand-washing & distancing - reduces your risk of *all* winter respiratory viruses, inc. flu, not just C19. Wear a mask in shops. Etc etc. The more time we get, the more we find out. And the better we do. End/
