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It amazes me how some think there is no world outside Ireland or the issues we face must only be happening here.
Right across Europe testing/tracing systems are buckling under the weight of community infection, most worse than here.
I'll outline why this is important to know.
Right across Europe testing/tracing systems are buckling under the weight of community infection, most worse than here.
I'll outline why this is important to know.
Netherlands system = collapsed.
They now have so much infection testing turnaround is a week in parts & they can't find new contact tracing staff.
GP's were recently told it is no longer even possible to be informed if patients test positive. https://nltimes.nl/2020/10/21/gps-pressure-due-sick-employees-ggd-sharing-covid-test-results
They now have so much infection testing turnaround is a week in parts & they can't find new contact tracing staff.
GP's were recently told it is no longer even possible to be informed if patients test positive. https://nltimes.nl/2020/10/21/gps-pressure-due-sick-employees-ggd-sharing-covid-test-results
Think that through.
A Dutch GP sends someone off for a test, and they are so overwhelmed they don't have the system nor staff to inform the GP of the result.
It is up to the patient to call their own GP to say "Soooo, I am positive" or "Hey Doc, good news I'm grand".
A Dutch GP sends someone off for a test, and they are so overwhelmed they don't have the system nor staff to inform the GP of the result.
It is up to the patient to call their own GP to say "Soooo, I am positive" or "Hey Doc, good news I'm grand".
Needless to say, this went down like a lead balloon with Dutch GP's.
""That can obviously can't be the case!" Littooij said to RTL Nieuws. "It is very important for GPs to know whether their patients have tested positive."
A masterful understatement.
""That can obviously can't be the case!" Littooij said to RTL Nieuws. "It is very important for GPs to know whether their patients have tested positive."
A masterful understatement.
That'd be Carin Littooij, head of GP union.
"I can't understand why there isn't an easier way to share this information. We have been in talks with the Ministry of Public Health to come up with a solution in which we can receive test information about our patients."
"I can't understand why there isn't an easier way to share this information. We have been in talks with the Ministry of Public Health to come up with a solution in which we can receive test information about our patients."
All areas of Belgium's system are at brink of collapse.
Feck all contact tracers, testing turnaround times running over a week in regions.
"Our system is at-best designed for strong waves, not for tsunamis". https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/19/belgium-facing-tsunami-of-covid-infections-health-minister-says
Feck all contact tracers, testing turnaround times running over a week in regions.
"Our system is at-best designed for strong waves, not for tsunamis". https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/19/belgium-facing-tsunami-of-covid-infections-health-minister-says
"To all intents and purposes there is no contact tracing in Hungary".
The rest of this article describes the complete absence, and overwhelming of, testing & tracing right across Romania, Bulgaria, Czech Republic.
Central/Eastern Europe is under it. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/14/world/europe/central-europe-coronavirus.html
The rest of this article describes the complete absence, and overwhelming of, testing & tracing right across Romania, Bulgaria, Czech Republic.
Central/Eastern Europe is under it. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/14/world/europe/central-europe-coronavirus.html
The turnaround time for a test in Paris at the moment is a week according to the NYT.
Up until weeks ago, France had recruited only 200 contact tracers (for perspective Ireland had double that amount for 13 times less people). https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/15/world/europe/coronavirus-europe.html
Up until weeks ago, France had recruited only 200 contact tracers (for perspective Ireland had double that amount for 13 times less people). https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/15/world/europe/coronavirus-europe.html
Ok so contact tracing is collapsing all over Europe (actually everywhere with a 14-day incidence of 300.0).
Why?
Because contact tracing is not designed to do this.
You can't easily scale it up, and even if you could, it achieves progressively less at high infection levels.
Why?
Because contact tracing is not designed to do this.
You can't easily scale it up, and even if you could, it achieves progressively less at high infection levels.
France had 40,000 cases today. Average close contacts are 7. Scale that over a week. 280,000 cases x 7.
Contact tracing is not designed to contact 2 million people in a week, that is a farcical expectation.
Even if they could, it wouldn't achieve as much at 500.0 per 100,000.
Contact tracing is not designed to contact 2 million people in a week, that is a farcical expectation.
Even if they could, it wouldn't achieve as much at 500.0 per 100,000.
Because focusing on the past is ineffective at high community infection levels.
Contact tracing is calling people who may have been exposed a week ago, 15% of whom are positive and have their own avg. 7 contacts.
So it's not just 2 million. It's 300,000 x 7 on top. 4 million.
Contact tracing is calling people who may have been exposed a week ago, 15% of whom are positive and have their own avg. 7 contacts.
So it's not just 2 million. It's 300,000 x 7 on top. 4 million.
The contact tracing work done in Ireland in the pandemic has been excellent.
The University of Sussex compared Ireland's system to UK, South Korea, Germany and we came off well in that study.
Public Health teams do phenomenal work in Ireland and were hamstrung from the get-go.
The University of Sussex compared Ireland's system to UK, South Korea, Germany and we came off well in that study.
Public Health teams do phenomenal work in Ireland and were hamstrung from the get-go.
Every government since 1970, including the last 2, have obviously failed to invest enough in Public Health.
The resources are simply not there and Public Health people are performing heroics to get through the insane amount of work they are doing.
The resources are simply not there and Public Health people are performing heroics to get through the insane amount of work they are doing.
Thought experiment.
Taiwan invested €5.7 billion after SARS, on pandemic preparedness. If an Irish government in 2013 said:
"Right lads, we're going to spend €6 billion on pandemic preparedness, just in case ya know yourself sure".
-Good idea! (0%)
-Feck off!!! (100%)
Taiwan invested €5.7 billion after SARS, on pandemic preparedness. If an Irish government in 2013 said:
"Right lads, we're going to spend €6 billion on pandemic preparedness, just in case ya know yourself sure".
-Good idea! (0%)
-Feck off!!! (100%)
The reality is Public Health was way down the list of people's priorities in normal times and it got funded as such.
The hardworking teams who normally handle things like a small Measles outbreak were now expected to handle a raging global pandemic on our shores.
The hardworking teams who normally handle things like a small Measles outbreak were now expected to handle a raging global pandemic on our shores.
That picture is essentially the same right across Europe, with Public Health chronically underfunded and understaffed.
That's how you can bizarrely end up with many Dutch GP's not even getting told their patients test result.
That's how you can bizarrely end up with many Dutch GP's not even getting told their patients test result.
Ireland's Public Health people have done a phenomenal job.
Compared to other countries, our test/trace system is holding up relatively well.
Turnaround times are not "over a week" and most outbreaks are traced effectively.
These are great people doing it for us.
Compared to other countries, our test/trace system is holding up relatively well.
Turnaround times are not "over a week" and most outbreaks are traced effectively.
These are great people doing it for us.
The Government should absolutely invest heavily in Public Health and that they failed to do so for the last 40 years is very sad.
It's against that backdrop of under-funding that Public Health, Medical Scientists, hospitals and labs all stepped up to heroic workloads.
It's against that backdrop of under-funding that Public Health, Medical Scientists, hospitals and labs all stepped up to heroic workloads.
Overall lesson from the collapse of contact tracing in Europe is very simple.
When infections are low, tracing is highly effective. When community infection is rampant, it's less effective.
There is one measure that works very well, in every country:
"Stay the feck at home".
When infections are low, tracing is highly effective. When community infection is rampant, it's less effective.
There is one measure that works very well, in every country:
"Stay the feck at home".
