Read on Twitter
Thread:
1/ Cool, so I crunched some numbers on this to give some perspective on the #OperationLeGend numbers from @kcpolice.
I used the data in @41actionnews& #39;s Homicide Tracker, which goes back to 2015. https://twitter.com/USAttyGarrison/status/1319092582643912704">https://twitter.com/USAttyGar...
1/ Cool, so I crunched some numbers on this to give some perspective on the #OperationLeGend numbers from @kcpolice.
I used the data in @41actionnews& #39;s Homicide Tracker, which goes back to 2015. https://twitter.com/USAttyGarrison/status/1319092582643912704">https://twitter.com/USAttyGar...
2/ So, what& #39;s here? Well, we see the same thing as in the chart from the story: the homicide rate was higher pre-Op. LeGend, lower during, and even lower after. But how does that compare to previous years?
3/ Overall, 2020 seems to buck the trends for the same relative time periods in the previous 5 years. 2017& #39;s trend in its number of homicides is really the only similar one to 2020. And in 2017& #39;s homicides-per-week, it flips back to the trends in all the other years.
4/ On top of that, 2020& #39;s numbers have been significantly higher in the "pre" and "during" ranges than any of the past 5 years (2017& #39;s "during" period comes close, though). 2020 has been a wildly unique and crazy year, however.
5/ Everyone& #39;s been stuck at home much more so than any previous year. We& #39;ve had big social upheaval with the protests and election. All the while the persistent socioeconomic and humanitarian issues we& #39;ve seen forever have continued to plague KCMO, the metro, and the country.
6/ So, we ask, "Was Operation LeGend really successful in causing a lowering homicide rate in KCMO this year?" My answer is maybe.
Correlation does not imply causation. Like I said, we have a ton of extraneous factors to consider -- many outside of what I even listed above.
Correlation does not imply causation. Like I said, we have a ton of extraneous factors to consider -- many outside of what I even listed above.
7/ Something in the air pushed the numbers to as high as they are this year. Maybe drugs, maybe the ghost of 2020, maybe long-festering frustrations manifesting in the form of killing. Idk. But the rate decrease this year is what we& #39;re looking at.
8/ Each of the previous 5 years, minus 2015, had a decrease from the "during" period to the "after" period in the rate of homicides-per-week. And every single year had a decrease in the number of homicides in the same periods. 2017& #39;s drop was 0.5 homicides more than 2020.
9/ Again, maybe it was successful. The similarities of the "during" and "after" trends suggest, to me, more of a "return to normal". So, maybe it was successful in doing *that*. Or maybe we& #39;re just returning to normal at the same time as general life returns to normal.
