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1/ Cool, so I crunched some numbers on this to give some perspective on the #OperationLeGend numbers from @kcpolice.
I used the data in @41actionnews's Homicide Tracker, which goes back to 2015. https://twitter.com/USAttyGarrison/status/1319092582643912704
1/ Cool, so I crunched some numbers on this to give some perspective on the #OperationLeGend numbers from @kcpolice.
I used the data in @41actionnews's Homicide Tracker, which goes back to 2015. https://twitter.com/USAttyGarrison/status/1319092582643912704
2/ So, what's here? Well, we see the same thing as in the chart from the story: the homicide rate was higher pre-Op. LeGend, lower during, and even lower after. But how does that compare to previous years?
3/ Overall, 2020 seems to buck the trends for the same relative time periods in the previous 5 years. 2017's trend in its number of homicides is really the only similar one to 2020. And in 2017's homicides-per-week, it flips back to the trends in all the other years.
4/ On top of that, 2020's numbers have been significantly higher in the "pre" and "during" ranges than any of the past 5 years (2017's "during" period comes close, though). 2020 has been a wildly unique and crazy year, however.
5/ Everyone's been stuck at home much more so than any previous year. We've had big social upheaval with the protests and election. All the while the persistent socioeconomic and humanitarian issues we've seen forever have continued to plague KCMO, the metro, and the country.
6/ So, we ask, "Was Operation LeGend really successful in causing a lowering homicide rate in KCMO this year?" My answer is maybe.
Correlation does not imply causation. Like I said, we have a ton of extraneous factors to consider -- many outside of what I even listed above.
Correlation does not imply causation. Like I said, we have a ton of extraneous factors to consider -- many outside of what I even listed above.
7/ Something in the air pushed the numbers to as high as they are this year. Maybe drugs, maybe the ghost of 2020, maybe long-festering frustrations manifesting in the form of killing. Idk. But the rate decrease this year is what we're looking at.
8/ Each of the previous 5 years, minus 2015, had a decrease from the "during" period to the "after" period in the rate of homicides-per-week. And every single year had a decrease in the number of homicides in the same periods. 2017's drop was 0.5 homicides more than 2020.
9/ Again, maybe it was successful. The similarities of the "during" and "after" trends suggest, to me, more of a "return to normal". So, maybe it was successful in doing *that*. Or maybe we're just returning to normal at the same time as general life returns to normal.
10/ Overall, this is to generate conversation and get some hard numbers out there. If anyone has anything that dispute what I've said or posted, please bring them up so we can get things corrected. I'm hoping this helps answers some questions and gives perspective/context.
