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Matt Hancock told the Commons today, placing Stoke, Coventry & Slough into Tier 2
"In all those areas, there are more than 100 positive cases per 100,000 people, cases are doubling approximately every fortnight and we are seeing a concerning increase in cases among the over-60s"
"In all those areas, there are more than 100 positive cases per 100,000 people, cases are doubling approximately every fortnight and we are seeing a concerning increase in cases among the over-60s"
So, it appears that we now appear to have criteria for placing local authorities into Tier 2:
- more than 100 cases per 100,000 people
- cases doubling approximately every fortnight
- concerning increase in cases among the over-60s
- more than 100 cases per 100,000 people
- cases doubling approximately every fortnight
- concerning increase in cases among the over-60s
100 cases per 100,000 seems arbitrary, especially considering it doubles the previous rate for interventions: https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1315587168555933701
So, let's look at the first criterion: more than 100 cases per 100,000 people. Here are the local authorities meeting this threshold (figures from @avds)
I ran out of space, so here's the fifth page. There are *TWO HUNDRED* local authorities meeting this criterion (out of 315). So why not place these local authorites into Tier 2 now?
Maybe it's the second criterion: cases doubling approximately every fortnight. Let's look at the growth rate according to https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Let's do a quick calculation of percentage growth and see which of these meet that criterion.
So, cases have roughly doubled when the growth rate is 5% or above. So, looking at the R values / growth rates above, that's definitely the whole of the South East and the South West
So, cases have roughly doubled when the growth rate is 5% or above. So, looking at the R values / growth rates above, that's definitely the whole of the South East and the South West
And what about the third and final criterion, 'concerning' increase in cases among the over-60s? Well, we can look at the national picture. I for one am concerned. Compare with the rate in the over 80s from a couple of months ago.
https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1319292649698807813
https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1319292649698807813
We could delay, but this will mean doubling of cases and doubling of death rates. And we are talking about *Tier 2* here. We know that the higher *Tier 3* restrictions by themselves won't reduce R to below 1 (source: @uksciencechief)
We know that delay means further deaths from Covid.
Why are we delaying?
This incremental policy creates arguments and headlines and distracts from the big picture.
Is the reason that Test & Trace has failed and the Government has no Plan B?
Why are we delaying?
This incremental policy creates arguments and headlines and distracts from the big picture.
Is the reason that Test & Trace has failed and the Government has no Plan B?
I have said it many times, but:
What is the Government's reasonable worst case scenario estimate for deaths?
And if it cannot answer that question, why not.
What is the Government's reasonable worst case scenario estimate for deaths?
And if it cannot answer that question, why not.
