Matt Hancock told the Commons today, placing Stoke, Coventry & Slough into Tier 2

"In all those areas, there are more than 100 positive cases per 100,000 people, cases are doubling approximately every fortnight and we are seeing a concerning increase in cases among the over-60s"

So, it appears that we now appear to have criteria for placing local authorities into Tier 2:
- more than 100 cases per 100,000 people
- cases doubling approximately every fortnight
- concerning increase in cases among the over-60s

100 cases per 100,000 seems arbitrary, especially considering it doubles the previous rate for interventions: https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1315587168555933701

So, let's look at the first criterion: more than 100 cases per 100,000 people. Here are the local authorities meeting this threshold (figures from @avds)

I ran out of space, so here's the fifth page. There are *TWO HUNDRED* local authorities meeting this criterion (out of 315). So why not place these local authorites into Tier 2 now?

Maybe it's the second criterion: cases doubling approximately every fortnight. Let's look at the growth rate according to https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk

Let's do a quick calculation of percentage growth and see which of these meet that criterion.

So, cases have roughly doubled when the growth rate is 5% or above. So, looking at the R values / growth rates above, that's definitely the whole of the South East and the South West

And what about the third and final criterion, 'concerning' increase in cases among the over-60s? Well, we can look at the national picture. I for one am concerned. Compare with the rate in the over 80s from a couple of months ago.

https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1319292649698807813

We could delay, but this will mean doubling of cases and doubling of death rates. And we are talking about *Tier 2* here. We know that the higher *Tier 3* restrictions by themselves won't reduce R to below 1 (source: @uksciencechief)

We know that delay means further deaths from Covid.

Why are we delaying?

This incremental policy creates arguments and headlines and distracts from the big picture.

Is the reason that Test & Trace has failed and the Government has no Plan B?

I have said it many times, but:

What is the Government's reasonable worst case scenario estimate for deaths?

And if it cannot answer that question, why not.