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Thread: what to expect in tonight’s debate and in the next two weeks. Please follow and share. 1/
Trump lost the last two debates despite the second debate/town hall being a one person debate. He is failing at broadening his coalition of voters- especially "suburban women". That is why conservative corespondents are tweeting this commentary. Please see my analysis here: 2/
Biden preformed remarkably well in the first debate and the town hall. Trump’s campaign is scrambling because Biden’s performance disproved their narrative. He isn't “sleepy” or senile. Rather, he is able to articulate policy and connect with voters clearly and effectively. 4/
These factors place Trump in a difficult position. Trump isn’t able to unnerve Biden with overly aggressive tactics and Trump also isn’t able to sway voters with false claims regarding Biden’s cognition or mental capacities. Both of his primary attacks have failed miserably 5/
Also remember that the debate commission changed the rules due to Trump's neurotic first performance. One candidate's microphone will be "turned off" during the first two minutes of each segment. 6/
THIS WILL ANGER AND ANNOY TRUMP. Narcissists hate to lose control and be unable to bully others. This will cause him to publicly melt down and have a disastrous debate. Trump clearly can't debate the issues and now he can't bully his way around the stage either. Checkmate. 7/
Trump now has two choices, he can "double down" and continue what doesn't work (which he may do because he is an overgrown man baby after all), OR he may actually follow the advice of political pundits and his debate team and present a narrative of his limited success & why he 8/
should be given 4 more years (haha). The beauty of this situation is that either option Trump chooses is doomed to fail. Despite the "polling PTSD" that has consumed the Democratic Party, the polls ARE NOT WRONG. Biden is winning this election. Keep it that way. GO VOTE EARLY. 9/
Trust the analysis of @NateSilver538 and @RachelBitecofer & other incredibly intelligent political analysts like @jncar76 @LarrySabato @CookPolitical etc. The numbers are on our side. Dems should shake off collective polling skepticism and confidently vote early. 10/
The consensus is even if Trump has the best debate performance in the entire history of presidential debates (and he won't), there are not enough "undecided voters" to sway the election. That is the difference between 2016 and 2020. Voters have already made up their minds. 11/
The error of 2016 was not seeing the unprecedented number of undecided voters in the weeks prior to the election. Trump won those voters two-to-one over HRC. Trump doesn't have that luxury in 2020. They are voting already and more than 30 million have already cast ballots. 12/
So to summarize, while we may not be able to anticipate what Trump will do tonight because he is an erratic unhinged narcissist, we can guess it won't end well for him and be certain that his tactics won't work or sway the election. 13/
We should be prepared for the likely scenario of Trump making a fool of himself again and further alienating women, minorities, and other key blocks of voters. He can't help but shoot himself in the foot tonight with the debate structured this way. 14/
So pour yourself a glass of your favorite beverage and watch Trump flounder and tantrum with his microphone turned off! Enjoy the #shadenfreude. I expect Biden to do very well tonight delivering a clear message about the soul of this nation and how he plans to unite us. 15/
If you liked this thread, GO VOTE EARLY. Also follow @beyondabyssal and those mentioned above for ongoing analysis. Thank you! End 16/
