Read on Twitter
For a long time, I've been struck by pessimistic takes that say Americans inherently can't or won't do what it takes to beat coronavirus.
I don't think that's right, and I so wrote about it for @ssrc_org. Here's a thread. https://items.ssrc.org/covid-19-and-the-social-sciences/democracy-and-pandemics/what-pessimistic-takes-on-americans-willingness-to-fight-covid-19-get-wrong/
I don't think that's right, and I so wrote about it for @ssrc_org. Here's a thread. https://items.ssrc.org/covid-19-and-the-social-sciences/democracy-and-pandemics/what-pessimistic-takes-on-americans-willingness-to-fight-covid-19-get-wrong/
The pessimistic argument is this: the only realistic view of Americans is that they will inevitably push to re-open and won't tolerate measures that threaten personal liberties.
That is hard to square with polling and other data on what Americans actually think and do.
That is hard to square with polling and other data on what Americans actually think and do.
There are links in my piece, but here is a good one from @monkeycageblog showing that large majorities choose strict measures even when they are explicitly juxtaposed with "liberty":
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/09/28/new-survey-yes-americans-will-give-up-liberties-fight-coronavirus/
(Or this: https://www.nber.org/papers/w27972#fromrss)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/09/28/new-survey-yes-americans-will-give-up-liberties-fight-coronavirus/
(Or this: https://www.nber.org/papers/w27972#fromrss)
The problem with the pessimistic take goes deeper. It seems to posit that resistance to COVID restrictions inevitably bubbles up from a liberty-loving public.
But what the data shows is that the public is mostly following the cues that leaders give them.
But what the data shows is that the public is mostly following the cues that leaders give them.
For example, earlier in the pandemic, the trends in concern among Republicans closely follow Trump's messages. Crucially, GOP concern *increased* when Trump (briefly) portrayed COVID-19 as a serious threat.
Or consider public opinion on closing businesses. Here let's split people by party and by how closely they follow politics. The more they follow politics, the more they should reflect what their party's leaders are saying.
In mid-March, there were very small party differences because even Trump was taking COVID more seriously then.
Overall, it was the attentive people, whether Democrats *or Republicans*, were most supportive. They got the message that this virus was dangerous.
Overall, it was the attentive people, whether Democrats *or Republicans*, were most supportive. They got the message that this virus was dangerous.
But then Trump criticized this restriction ("LIBERATE MICHIGAN" etc.). And so GOP support plummets, especially among the politically attentive.
The same thing happened with opinion about cancelling large gatherings, as Cindy Kam and I showed here: https://www.voterstudygroup.org/publication/symptoms-vary
The same thing happened with opinion about cancelling large gatherings, as Cindy Kam and I showed here: https://www.voterstudygroup.org/publication/symptoms-vary
In short, I don't see much evidence of a "reflexive" or "folk" libertarianism, to use @DouthatNYT's phrasing. This is true even among the GOP.
Instead, I see evidence that the public will follow the guidance they get from party leaders -- even if that means less liberty.
Instead, I see evidence that the public will follow the guidance they get from party leaders -- even if that means less liberty.
A sidenote about the GOP: it is worth reflecting on the fact that Republican support for closing businesses is still >50% and hasn't moved in months. This pandemic is as much a story of division within the GOP as division between the parties. But that's another tweetstorm.
Of course, we can look around today and see people who don't observe COVID protocols.
But it didn't have to be that way.
And it wasn't actually the public's failure that got us to this point. https://items.ssrc.org/covid-19-and-the-social-sciences/democracy-and-pandemics/what-pessimistic-takes-on-americans-willingness-to-fight-covid-19-get-wrong/
But it didn't have to be that way.
And it wasn't actually the public's failure that got us to this point. https://items.ssrc.org/covid-19-and-the-social-sciences/democracy-and-pandemics/what-pessimistic-takes-on-americans-willingness-to-fight-covid-19-get-wrong/
