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So I've just tried to tie out Tesla's results to my model, and the results are 
Historically Tesla has disclosed a 25% FSD take rate, and with that I've calculated a 17% gross margin on their manufacturing operations (excluding FSD and credits). In Q3...
Historically Tesla has disclosed a 25% FSD take rate, and with that I've calculated a 17% gross margin on their manufacturing operations (excluding FSD and credits). In Q3...
going through the same exercise I'm calculating a 33% FSD take rate, plus 13.5K upgrades from the existing fleet, and a 20.7% manufacturing margin. I was bullish on all of these numbers but this is really shocking to me in the best possible way.
Also Zach disclosed that only $10M of deferred FSD revenue was recognized, so by my estimates the current deferred FSD revenue balance is ~$880M. I would guess if the FSD re-write goes into wide release we should see at least $400M of this drop to the bottom line in Q4.
Assuming a 36% take rate and 4% upgrade rate this Q due to the FSD release and the impending price increase, I calculate a shocking $1.0B in GAAP FSD revenue for Q4. Even assuming no further improvements to manufacturing margin, and a drop in credits to $200M, I'm showing auto...
gross margin for Q4 of 30.2%. Even assuming further price drops going forward, the new FSD price, take rate, and % recognizable assumptions (in combination with this outstanding manufacturing) margin make it very difficult for me to model auto GM dropping below 30% ever.
BULLISH.
