Yesterday the Minister of Health tweeted this. And I& #39;m not entirely sure what the source of his data is, but I& #39;m always a bit wary of relative statistics without context. So, I did a little bit of analysis.... NB: Data is updated constantly, so it is unlikely that the numbers... https://twitter.com/DrZweliMkhize/status/1318898584989958145">https://twitter.com/DrZweliMk...

... that I use will be identical to those that Dr Mkhize used. That said, his percentage change in daily cases does seem a bit high.

what we are measuring here is the delta in new daily cases. i.e. how the number of new cases is changing. The daily number fluctuates a lot -

...due to reporting periods, weekends, different structures reporting at different times etc.- so in order to reduce that fluctuation, we smooth the numbers by taking a 7-day moving average. And when we do that, this is what the daily cases look like:

somehow I broke this thread, continued here: https://twitter.com/Arfness/status/1319263697936764928?s=20">https://twitter.com/Arfness/s...