Thread by @dhopkins1776, Over 2020, I've teamed up with @Civiqs to track PA residents' views [...]

Dan Hopkins

dhopkins1776

Over 2020, I've teamed up with @Civiqs to track PA residents' views of politics, COVID-19, and much else. The goal of these online surveys is to track the same people over time , so they are *not* optimized for the current PA electorate. But the trends may be instructive.

1/N

The first statewide survey: 2/27/20-3/3/20. N=2,462

Trump 48%
Biden 46%

Second: 3/14/20-3/18/20. N=1,589.

Trump 48%
Biden 46%

2/N

Third: 4/4-4/8/20. N=1,912.

Trump: 47%
Biden: 47%

(Fourth survey was only in PHL, only about COVID-19.)

Fifth: 5/30-6/2/20. N=2,045.

Biden: 49%
Trump: 46%

3/N

Sixth: 6/6-6/11/20. N=1,221.

Biden: 49%
Trump: 46%

(Seventh survey was only in 10 CDs. Stay tuned.)

Eighth: 10/17-10/21/20. N=1,577.

Biden: 52%
Trump: 46%

4/N

I posted the methods/crosstabs here in separate PDFs:

https://web.sas.upenn.edu/danhop/files/2020/10/PublicRelease10222020.zip

5/N

Even with 952 people interviewed in Feb./March and again in recent days, I can count movers from Biden (-1) to Trump (1) or the reverse on my fingers. 2.4% go from undecided -> Biden vs. 0.6% for Trump. 6/N

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