EXPLOSIVENESS IN #FPL

On this week's pod, we discussed Explosiveness among captaincy options an answer to a Correspondence question from @mccollio09

We gave a comprehensive answer on the episode but, as promised, here's a short THREAD with these findings visualised

METHOD
With help from @SeekingDusan, data from 2018-now was collected + tallied to give us recent historical outcomes for the usual captaincy candidates:

Kane
Son
Salah
Mane
Sterling
KdBAguero
(no Auba; see cavs)

In terms of:

Return = 6-9pts
Haul = 10-15pts
Explode = 16+pts

Here's how that turned out!
Already, you can begin to see some initial patterns here, but it's far easier to read if it's just summed up (next tweet)...

I've ranked the players here by *any* captain return (over 6) in the last 2 years
Findings
o Salah leads the way wrt reliability, both in terms of frequent 6-9s and any
o Mane is 2nd for returns and also the "haul king" (10-15s)
o Sterling has exploded (16+) most frequently

We've defined "explosion" as 16+ points scored.
This means that
"Sterling was the most explosive over the last 2 years
is a true statement
(this obvs doesn't mean Raz is always better!)
We can also use this data further: to see reliability of DOUBLE DIGIT returns (next tweet)

Looking at the proportion of any return being over 10 points, it's fascinating

Son, KdB & Sterling will have scored double digits *over half of the time* if they returned anything

Obviously, Son/Kdb (historic injuries) have a smaller base total to start with though

From @WGTA_Nick:
Just to mention Bruno Fernandes
18 games played (14 last season, 4 from this)
8 hauls, 5 returns = no returns in only 5 games (a 5 pointer doesn’t count as a return under this reading)
This means a 72% games-to-returns+ ratio
One to watch in this context

Summary (last 2 years' data):
o Salah/Mane: reliable returners/haulers
o Sterling: explosive & good DD proportion
o Son: likeliest to get you 10+ points
o Mix of return frequency + proportion of DDs for Salah&Mane can't be ignored!
(Yeah, obvious findings. BUT proved with data!)

Thanks for reading!
Might develop this into something further (provided the idea isn't stolen by others, please keep an eye out for it!) as it's an angle which is often asserted ("xx is explosive") but rarely corroborated by data in the #FPL zeitgeist.
Explosivity Index? Will see

Considerations:
- Happy if you come to a different conclusion!
- No Auba; historically not a consistent (c) option
- Base sizes eg Son/KdB/Kun
- Data done manually: can't guarantee no errors (but shouldn't change story)
- Chrctr limits
- Contextual concerns eg restart, covid

The question asker himself @mccollio09 has also added his thoughts on how this translates into how he'll approach captaincy in the upcoming weeks, with a slightly different take - as well a controversial No Mo plan!
Read here: https://twitter.com/mccollio09/status/1319191627827740673?s=20

Here's the pod itself
Worth listening to for the whole thing of course (I promise, we're rather good), but the Correspondence section kicks in around ~43:15: https://twitter.com/WGTA_FPL/status/1318503524431429632?s=20

And finally, if you want to hear the sound of an Irishman squealing with delight ( @FPLStag) as he reads out emails, do mail your questions/pet theories/addendums (not exhaustive) in to us to be analysed for the Correspondence section!
Mail to whogottheassist[at]gmail[dot]com