Johnson’s Biden calculation is more complex than many make out.

Given the polls, UK govt has to conclude a Biden presidency most probable outcome. So why wait for it to restart Brexit talks?

It’s this:
It doesn’t affect the substance of Brexit so much as the mood of UK leavers.

2/

The moment it’s clear Biden has won - the whole psychological context of Brexit changes - whatever your views on actual substance of Brexit.

Without the idea of Trump as facilitator of a US deal or of UK riding a global populist wave - brexit becomes just a problem to solve.

3/

I think Johnson is smart enough to get this.

If you’re going to have to compromise - do it when your supporters are dejected Trump has gone..not while they still believe he could win.

That way it wasn’t your fault.

That’s another reason to be more optimistic for a deal.

4/

The whole “Irish equation“ to Brexit doesn’t really change much in substance between Trump & Biden - but the psychology of it does for UK.

With Biden there’s no way of covering this up - and everyone gets this.
This enables Johnson to argue his hands are tied.