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Here's a prime example of misinformation & omission of context in COVID media coverage:
Today, @12News in AZ pushes a story that "These 4 graphs show Arizona is losing the fight against COVID-19"
A thread of the graphs and context:
(1)
Today, @12News in AZ pushes a story that "These 4 graphs show Arizona is losing the fight against COVID-19"
A thread of the graphs and context:
(1)
(For the images below, I (quickly) positioned the 12News graphs above those from the AZDHS dashboard and used the black lines to draw down to the dates from which the 12News data was pulled, giving a fuller picture.)
(2)
https://www.12news.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/these-4-graphs-show-arizona-is-losing-the-battle-against-covid-19-cases-ventilators-icu-inpatient-beds-deaths/75-469c9ff2-563c-43d0-8d5c-e36f3320fd35 https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php
(2)
https://www.12news.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/these-4-graphs-show-arizona-is-losing-the-battle-against-covid-19-cases-ventilators-icu-inpatient-beds-deaths/75-469c9ff2-563c-43d0-8d5c-e36f3320fd35 https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php
GRAPH #1: "100% increase in the 7-day average number of cases since October 1st"
CONTEXT: Yes. But cases are down est. 500% from the peak in July, despite new inclusion of antigen tests from the universities starting mid-Sept. Also, "cases" don't = illness/transmissibility.
(3)
CONTEXT: Yes. But cases are down est. 500% from the peak in July, despite new inclusion of antigen tests from the universities starting mid-Sept. Also, "cases" don't = illness/transmissibility.
(3)
CLAIM #2: "42% increase in number of inpatient beds in use" by COVID patients since 10/1
CONTEXT: Yes, after a >300% drop in inpatients w/ COVID since peak in July. Also, only 10% of inpatients have COVID & that includes cases found incidentally through testing all admits
(4)
CONTEXT: Yes, after a >300% drop in inpatients w/ COVID since peak in July. Also, only 10% of inpatients have COVID & that includes cases found incidentally through testing all admits
(4)
GRAPH #3: "37% increase in ICU beds in use" by COVID patients
CONTEXT: Yes, also ICU bed usage by COVID patients is down roughly 350% since the peak in July and, again, only 10% of available ICU beds are in use by patients with COVID.
(5)
CONTEXT: Yes, also ICU bed usage by COVID patients is down roughly 350% since the peak in July and, again, only 10% of available ICU beds are in use by patients with COVID.
(5)
GRAPH #4: "12% increase in ventilators in use."
CONTEXT: While there are 468 vents (22%) in use in AZ for all causes, only 91 (5%) of them are in use for people with COVID (see second graph).
(6)
CONTEXT: While there are 468 vents (22%) in use in AZ for all causes, only 91 (5%) of them are in use for people with COVID (see second graph).
(6)
They also attribute--without evidence--that all of these "increases" are the result of "preventative measures being relaxed across the state", despite Florida being relaxed for weeks and seeing no increase.
(7) https://twitter.com/jhaskinscabrera/status/1317217532382773254?s=20
(7) https://twitter.com/jhaskinscabrera/status/1317217532382773254?s=20
They also allude to an impending catastrophe if schools begin to open, despite that fear being repeatedly debunked as well.
(8) https://twitter.com/AJKayWriter/status/1318914207069347848?s=20
(8) https://twitter.com/AJKayWriter/status/1318914207069347848?s=20
@12News does finally mention in the last sentence of the article that,
"Thankfully. the death numbers have not seen the same drastic increase that the other trends have...death metrics have actually seen a 29% decrease since the beginning of the month." https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/10/20/925441975/studies-point-to-big-drop-in-covid-19-death-rates
"Thankfully. the death numbers have not seen the same drastic increase that the other trends have...death metrics have actually seen a 29% decrease since the beginning of the month." https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/10/20/925441975/studies-point-to-big-drop-in-covid-19-death-rates
Yay!!! Why isn't that the lead???
It should make anyone pause and say, "If COVID is not nearly as deadly as once believed, how do these restrictions make sense?"
They don't.
Or, they only make sense to an panicked, misinformed population in a high-stakes election year.
(10)
It should make anyone pause and say, "If COVID is not nearly as deadly as once believed, how do these restrictions make sense?"
They don't.
Or, they only make sense to an panicked, misinformed population in a high-stakes election year.
(10)
Reality: Cases will ebb and flow, likely with some seasonality, like all endemic viruses.
We must not allow our world to be held hostage by media click-bait every time there in a slight uptick in cases of an endemic, likely-to-be-seasonal virus.
(11)
We must not allow our world to be held hostage by media click-bait every time there in a slight uptick in cases of an endemic, likely-to-be-seasonal virus.
(11)
This article is selling more self-inflicted, unnecessary, & disproportionately distributed harm, reframed for the unquestioning masses as "saving lives".
Think about it.
(The End)
***source for slide 3: https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/positive-antigen-test-result-reporting-behind-massive-spike-in-new-arizona-cases
Think about it.
(The End)
***source for slide 3: https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/positive-antigen-test-result-reporting-behind-massive-spike-in-new-arizona-cases
(And the point of the thread survives my backward-facing, rushed, trying-to-homeschool-and-tweet reverse percentage drop calcs. Should be multiples, or even absolutes, not percent, but I’m okay w/ it. 
)
)
FOLLOW UP: "Losing the battle" makes so much more sense now. https://twitter.com/AJKayWriter/status/1319142779172253696?s=20
