While the world wrestles with a deadly pandemic, another challenge is sneaking up on the human race: population aging.

As we transition from an exploding species to a shrinking one, economies around the world will start to feel the pressure https://trib.al/MawBWAc ">https://trib.al/MawBWAc&q...

Japan is the canary in the coal mine here.

Although its birth rate is not as low as that of many other rich countries, it& #39;s been low for a long time. That’s why Japan is now the world’s oldest major economy http://trib.al/MawBWAc ">https://trib.al/MawBWAc&q...

On one hand, Japan demonstrates why a shrinking population doesn’t automatically impoverish a country.

Its population is slowly declining, yet income per capita has continued to rise as productivity grows and more women enter the workforce http://trib.al/MawBWAc ">https://trib.al/MawBWAc&q...

But pronounced aging has an economic cost.

Every year, a dwindling pool of working-age Japanese people is forced to support an expanding pool of gray-haired consumers. This is why Japan’s living standards are falling http://trib.al/MawBWAc ">https://trib.al/MawBWAc&q...

In concrete terms, this means:

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👵🏽" title="Ältere Frau (mittlerer Hautton)" aria-label="Emoji: Ältere Frau (mittlerer Hautton)">More adults forced into eldercare
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💰" title="Geldsack" aria-label="Emoji: Geldsack">More taxes to pay for pensions and health care
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🛌🏽" title="Übernachtungsmöglichkeit (mittlerer Hautton)" aria-label="Emoji: Übernachtungsmöglichkeit (mittlerer Hautton)">Lower living standards for the elderly http://trib.al/MawBWAc ">https://trib.al/MawBWAc&q...

There’s also another potential cost to severe aging: macroeconomic dysfunction.

As Japan’s population has leveled off, its economy has slipped into a seemingly permanent state of deflation or near-deflation http://trib.al/MawBWAc ">https://trib.al/MawBWAc&q...

Aging might also have another corrosive effect on productivity.

In countries like Japan which promotes people by seniority, a deficit of dynamic, fresh-thinking young people might make companies less nimble and less open to new ideas http://trib.al/MawBWAc ">https://trib.al/MawBWAc&q...

Countries try to compensate for population aging:

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✔️" title="Fettes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes Häkchen">Old people work longer
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✔️" title="Fettes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes Häkchen">More parents go to work
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✔️" title="Fettes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes Häkchen">Countries invest in automation

But unless robots get much better, there’s probably a limit to how much these measures can fight the graying tide http://trib.al/MawBWAc ">https://trib.al/MawBWAc&q...

For now, the global population continues to grow.

If countries skewing older can overcome political hurdles, they can keep growing by taking in young working-age immigrants http://trib.al/MawBWAc ">https://trib.al/MawBWAc&q...

Immigration is how these countries have all grown faster than Japan, and it’s why Japan itself has been ramping up immigration:

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇦" title="Flagge von Kanada" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Kanada">Canada
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇺🇸" title="Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten">The U.S.
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇬🇧" title="Flagge des Vereinigten Königreiches" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge des Vereinigten Königreiches">The U.K.
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇩🇪" title="Flagge von Deutschland" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Deutschland">Germany
http://trib.al/MawBWAc ">https://trib.al/MawBWAc&q...

But this solution will be temporary, because the transition to small families is happening all over the world.

Fertility in Muslim countries has crashed in the last two decades. Even sub-Saharan Africa is seeing its numbers fall faster and faster http://trib.al/MawBWAc ">https://trib.al/MawBWAc&q...

This doesn’t mean that the globe is headed for a childless future.

But it does mean that the window is closing for a few developed countries to continue to meet the challenges of population aging http://trib.al/MawBWAc ">https://trib.al/MawBWAc&q...