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Let& #39;s play a little game together that I play every morning.
I call it: POLLING IS TRASH.
You ready?
(Thread coming...)
I call it: POLLING IS TRASH.
You ready?
(Thread coming...)
2/ So I usually go to Real Clear Politics and click on the POLLS section on the top nav bar.
This page aggregates most of the public polling made available by news organizations.
A handy resource for politics nerds like me...
This page aggregates most of the public polling made available by news organizations.
A handy resource for politics nerds like me...
3/ Today, I go to the page and what do I see...
Trump down by 3
Trump down by 9
Trump down by 10
Trump down by 10
This narrative lets the media crow "Trump& #39;s IN TROUBLE!"
It& #39;s designed to mislead the electorate, who prefer to be in the majority. Human nature, etc.
Trump down by 3
Trump down by 9
Trump down by 10
Trump down by 10
This narrative lets the media crow "Trump& #39;s IN TROUBLE!"
It& #39;s designed to mislead the electorate, who prefer to be in the majority. Human nature, etc.
4/ So let& #39;s drill into it a little.
I picked the CNBC Change Research poll first.
You find the crosstabs, and you get to a PDF. It& #39;s 25 pages long:
https://changeresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/CNBC-CR_National_Toplines_Wave-16_October-17-18-crosstabs.pdf">https://changeresearch.com/wp-conten...
I picked the CNBC Change Research poll first.
You find the crosstabs, and you get to a PDF. It& #39;s 25 pages long:
https://changeresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/CNBC-CR_National_Toplines_Wave-16_October-17-18-crosstabs.pdf">https://changeresearch.com/wp-conten...
5/ So the first thing I do is I scroll to the VERY BOTTOM of the poll to look at who they speak to.
And voila, what do we find?
It skews left, duh! But wait... there& #39;s more...
And voila, what do we find?
It skews left, duh! But wait... there& #39;s more...
6/ It breaks down even further than just "how did you vote in 2016" which isn& #39;t a very reliable metric.
False recall can drastically affect those numbers. Usually in FAVOR of the incumbent. So if 44 said Hillary & 40 said Trump, the real Trump number is likely to be even lower.
False recall can drastically affect those numbers. Usually in FAVOR of the incumbent. So if 44 said Hillary & 40 said Trump, the real Trump number is likely to be even lower.
7/ Now in that graphic above, you see the party breakdown.
In total, 50% of those polled are Dems of some persuasion. Just 40% are Republicans.
In total, 50% of those polled are Dems of some persuasion. Just 40% are Republicans.
8/ The "Party ID" bear this out too. Bear in mind there& #39;s a small margin of error here...
8 pts more Dems than Republicans, which is like a 22% distinction...
8 pts more Dems than Republicans, which is like a 22% distinction...
