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I've been quiet during the INT. break! Sitting on 305 points and 699k rank.
Since, I haven't posted for a while, I think it's time I wrote my first ever #FPL thread with some thoughts.
...
What I've always preached about is trying to understand FPL fundamentally.
Since, I haven't posted for a while, I think it's time I wrote my first ever #FPL thread with some thoughts.
...
What I've always preached about is trying to understand FPL fundamentally.
That is, the "theory" behind the game (hence writing an ebook about this!).
One subject which is particularly interesting this season is "relative value".
Typically, we compare players like this - player A vs player B, Trent vs Robbo, A+C vs B+D, two players at a similar...
One subject which is particularly interesting this season is "relative value".
Typically, we compare players like this - player A vs player B, Trent vs Robbo, A+C vs B+D, two players at a similar...
... price etc.
Too often this is looked at in absolute terms. For example, I think player A outscores player B over this game/some length of time/the season.
This misses a ton of nuance and can lead to erroneous conclusions.
Relative value can be expressed in many ways.
Too often this is looked at in absolute terms. For example, I think player A outscores player B over this game/some length of time/the season.
This misses a ton of nuance and can lead to erroneous conclusions.
Relative value can be expressed in many ways.
Firstly, a player may be more valuable to own in a particular week, relative to the other options, within his own position.
For example, in a week where an in-form Liverpool are playing a relegated team at home, where other premium midfield options have tough away games.
For example, in a week where an in-form Liverpool are playing a relegated team at home, where other premium midfield options have tough away games.
In this instance, Salah/Mane may be relatively far more valuable to own in this week, as opposed to a gameweek where they play a relegated team at home, but Sterling/KDB also have a similar strength fixture and MCI are looking good.
Captaincy is obviously a factor here.
Captaincy is obviously a factor here.
.. Secondly, we can consider the relative value (or strength) of an entire position.
This is relevant to this season where the goals are flying in at such an unprecedented rate.
In this sense attack is relatively more valuable than defence, and will be if things continue.
This is relevant to this season where the goals are flying in at such an unprecedented rate.
In this sense attack is relatively more valuable than defence, and will be if things continue.
..Thirdly, consider the relative value of individual players across positions at similar price points.
This is the classic, "Trent vs similarly priced mids/forwards?".
This is slightly more nuanced than just comparing them by season points/games.
A better question is...
This is the classic, "Trent vs similarly priced mids/forwards?".
This is slightly more nuanced than just comparing them by season points/games.
A better question is...
"Is Trent more valuable to own to own as a defender, compared with the 7.5 mids/forwards as mids/forwards?"
It's murky comparing across positions because this has a bearing on fund distribution/formation etc, but starting to think in relative terms can help make things clearer.
It's murky comparing across positions because this has a bearing on fund distribution/formation etc, but starting to think in relative terms can help make things clearer.
Fourthly, bonus points. Pope of seasons past for example, scored so many bonus points (shame about that price hike) because he performed so much better in the bonus system, relatively, than his defenders.
There are probably more examples, but what can we conclude from the above?
There are probably more examples, but what can we conclude from the above?
Conclusions:
- If ever there was a season where it's ok to go tiny in defence, it seems it's this one. With VVD and Allison out, this only compounds LIV's defensive troubles and further makes them less valuable to own. However, you should never be selling a LIV defender ahead...
- If ever there was a season where it's ok to go tiny in defence, it seems it's this one. With VVD and Allison out, this only compounds LIV's defensive troubles and further makes them less valuable to own. However, you should never be selling a LIV defender ahead...
of SHU at home!
- If LIV continue to struggle with clean sheets, Salah and Mane may become more valuable to own in the sense that they should score more bonus points when they score goals.
A double up might be a savvy move (have you checked Mane's stats?!)
- If LIV continue to struggle with clean sheets, Salah and Mane may become more valuable to own in the sense that they should score more bonus points when they score goals.
A double up might be a savvy move (have you checked Mane's stats?!)
- The more attackers we have firing, the more aggressive we can play from week to week. I don't usually encourage hits but with more potential to land big scores each week, perhaps a more aggressive strategy can work well.
Of course this can backfire too, but the potential is...
Of course this can backfire too, but the potential is...
there!
What else might you conclude from this? Have a think!
That's it for now!
Trying to keep this short and sweet - essays could be written expanding on everything but I hope it was a fun read!
What else might you conclude from this? Have a think!
That's it for now!
Trying to keep this short and sweet - essays could be written expanding on everything but I hope it was a fun read!
