$SRRA is admittedly a game of patience with the Momentum phase III data catalyst ~18 months away, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think the stock can double/triple/quadruple INTO that event.
I agree w/ @juliaskripkaser that $SRRA data is more comprehensive and compelling than that of CNST.
For reference, if $SRRA traded at parity with $CNST, it would be north of $70, roughly a 5 bagger from here!
$SRRA has a de-risked phase III data catalyst and sufficient cash to get them beyond the pivotal data.
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momelotinb has been studied extensively in hundreds (>800) of patients and has been shown to be uniquely effective in treating anemic and transfusion dependent myelofibrosis patients.
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Leading MF physicians, Dr. Srdan Verstovsek and Dr. Ruben Mesa, have both spoken publicly about momelotinib’s potential to serve an important unmet clinical need.
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Their post-hoc Simplify analysis presented at ASH last year showed that patients receiving Momelotinib had nearly 10 fold higher odds of receiving no transfusions than those on Rux
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This transfusion-sparing clinical profile is meaningfully more attractive in a post-Covid world given widespread blood shortages, preoccupied hospital staffs, social distancing measures, etc
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Another post-hoc Simply analysis presented at EHA this year highlighted the favorable durability and long-term tolerability of momelotinib versus Rux.
A small group of successful and well-regarded HC investors— Vivo, Longitude, Orbimed, Abingworth, Rock Springs (just dukes)— and Gilead now own nearly 70% of $SRRA.
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The first four all have Board representation, and they’re preemptively improving the company’s commercialization potential with a thorough C-suite upgrade (new CEO, CSO, CBO, CRO).
$SRRA is currently trading at net cash, so, while it’s not unfathomable that the stock can move lower, there is a nice ‘margin of safety’ embedded here.
And while the high probability game changer catalyst is still 18 months away, $SRRA will be presenting another post-hoc analysis at ASH in December (abstracts likely in November), which has the potential to rekindle sentiment (nearly tripled into ASH last year).
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Moreover, there is free call optionality on SRA737 data http://clinicaltrials.gov  recently reported that Phase 1/2 trials of SRA737 as a monotherapy and in combination with low dose gemcitabine in solid cancers are complete, etc.
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I’m long in size and therefore biased, so take this thread with grain of salt. I consider it one of best risk adjusted time & liquidity arbs in market right now. Would genuinely love to hear any pushback on the fundamental thesis other than “no near term catalyst”
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