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Putin saw Trump's partial withdrawal of US troops last fall as a gift to #Assad that would allow him to reclaim all Syrian land. But instead of collapsing the #Kurdish-led administration continues to govern 1/4 of #Syria.
My new piece for @ForeignPolicy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/21/the-united-states-can-counter-putin-and-assad-with-a-light-footprint-in-syria/
My new piece for @ForeignPolicy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/21/the-united-states-can-counter-putin-and-assad-with-a-light-footprint-in-syria/
During my visit to Syria I saw how governance structures of the Autonomous Administration continue to function. Local courts like this one still operate with their own system of jurisprudence, effectively abolishing some laws still upheld by the regime, such as the death penalty.
Because the Northeast has refused to submit to Assad, Russia has shifted to new forms of subterfuge: demanding more Russian bases in the Northeast, trying to divide the SDF by inciting sectarian tensions, amplifying the regime’s anti-Kurdish propaganda, and harassing U.S. troops.
Both #Russia and the US signed cease-fire agreements with Ankara in Oct 2019. But neither the Russian nor US agreement has prevented 
or Turkish-backed factions from committing over 800 cease-fire violations in the past year. See my piece for @CFR_CPA 
https://www.cfr.org/blog/despite-ceasefire-agreement-turkey-implicated-more-eight-hundred-violations?utm_medium=social_share&utm_source=tw
or Turkish-backed factions from committing over 800 cease-fire violations in the past year. See my piece for @CFR_CPA https://www.cfr.org/blog/despite-ceasefire-agreement-turkey-implicated-more-eight-hundred-violations?utm_medium=social_share&utm_source=tw
Russia recently threatened to withdraw from the area around Tel Tamer - a region that has suffered 138 attacks from #Turkey & Turkish-backed forces in the past year. Russia's threat to withdraw was likely intended to force the #SDF to make concessions. https://twitter.com/AmyAustinHolmes/status/1316496815991259136?s=20
But the Turkish "Peace Spring" intervention last year, and ongoing Turkish attacks since then - despite 2 cease-fire agreements - do not appear to have led to any major defections of #Kurds, #Arabs, or even weakening of the SDF.
On the contrary. Putin must be disappointed.
On the contrary. Putin must be disappointed.
Whether motivated by higher salaries, greater stability in the Northeast, a commitment to the new political system being established, or just a desire to escape Assad, Arabs from across Syria are enlisting in the SDF. @cmoc_sdf https://merip.org/2020/07/arabs-across-syria-join-the-kurdish-led-syrian-democratic-forces/
The lack of a strong U.S. commitment to northeast Syria - other than Trump’s professed desire to “protect the oil" - works in Russia’s favor. A stronger US commitment does not have to entail a large or open-ended troop deployment. More diplomatic engagement is needed.
In contrast to the Russian-sponsored talks with the regime, which have gone nowhere, the US-sponsored #Kurdish unity talks are making progress. If they succeed they could pave the way to greater political pluralism and potentially reduce tensions with Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan.
It’s time to stop treating the SDF as just a D-ISIS tool. The SDF & AANES have held territory, made the NE the most stable region of Syria, and have refused for 8+ years to surrender to Assad. An alternative to Assad is already on the horizon; the US just needs to acknowledge it.
