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Inspired by a stat I heard on @Scienceofsport podcast about the new shoes (Vaporfly etc) I thought I’d dig up some numbers to see if/what difference they’re making. The stat was the # of runners who broke 2:08 in 2015 (51) vs. 2019 (100). I pulled stats off @WorldAthletics 1/9
I’m going to compare the nth performance in 2011, 2015 and 2019 to see if there is anything significant. For example, the 500th fastest performance in 2015 was 2:15:07. The 500th performance in 2019 was 2:13:09. Almost a 2 min improvement by a very similar group of athletes. 2/9
Women’s stats:
There is a trend to faster times from 2011 to 2015. Perhaps this is due to the fact that the women’s marathon is a relatively new event and gaining more competitors (?). Even taking “natural” progression into account still significant difference 2015 to 2019. 3/9
There is a trend to faster times from 2011 to 2015. Perhaps this is due to the fact that the women’s marathon is a relatively new event and gaining more competitors (?). Even taking “natural” progression into account still significant difference 2015 to 2019. 3/9
Men’s stats:
Because not everyone was wearing supershoes in 2019 I’m going to assume individual improvement by wearing new tech would be greater than the average difference between 2015 to 2019.
Interesting to note that times were relatively the same from 2011 to 2015. 4/9
Because not everyone was wearing supershoes in 2019 I’m going to assume individual improvement by wearing new tech would be greater than the average difference between 2015 to 2019.
Interesting to note that times were relatively the same from 2011 to 2015. 4/9
Perhaps we see less improvement from top-end (top 100) as those athletes could have had paying contracts with companies without the new technology. Slightly slower athletes had none or a contract worth breaking.
Perhaps the best athletes have less room for improvement? 5/9
Perhaps the best athletes have less room for improvement? 5/9
The 300th fastest performance in the world should pretty much be the same athlete 4 years on. We’re not talking about different generations.
However, 4 years on a 2:12:49 man is now running 2:10:55 (~2 min faster) and a 2:34:53 woman is running 2:31:31 (+ 3 minutes faster). 6/9
However, 4 years on a 2:12:49 man is now running 2:10:55 (~2 min faster) and a 2:34:53 woman is running 2:31:31 (+ 3 minutes faster). 6/9
The shoes allow athletes to recover faster so there may be more performances by 1 given athlete in 2019 vs 2015 which would alter the difference (I doubt it’s significant).
I’m by no means a statistician so feel free to point out my errors or other factors I’m overlooking. 7/9
I’m by no means a statistician so feel free to point out my errors or other factors I’m overlooking. 7/9
I like the new shoes (says the 41 y/o marathoner 
). I think more people will enjoy the marathon because their legs won’t be as sore.
Now that other companies have closed the technology gap on Nike the playing field is petty fair.
8/9
). I think more people will enjoy the marathon because their legs won’t be as sore. Now that other companies have closed the technology gap on Nike the playing field is petty fair.
8/9
Beyond the numbers it’s interesting to note what athletes feel. I haven’t run a full marathon in the Vaporfly Next% but in March I did a 43km run with 36km at a solid effort. My last fast 4km section (34-38k) went surprisingly better than anticipated and I recovery went well. 9/9
(I apologize to those who initially saw this thread as individual tweets.)
