1/ While your intention is noble, your petition is a misreading of history. I’ll share this thread to show that sanctions are disastrous ideas in foreign policy. They’ve never produced desired outcomes. In many cases, the sanctioned states emerge “stronger,” as the people suffer. https://twitter.com/burnaboy/status/1318687215292194818

2/ During the Cold War, the UN Security Council banned apartheid South Africa and Rhodesia to oppose their repressive regimes. South Africa grew militarily, and Rhodesia cushioned its economy by buying food products from neighbouring countries like Tanzania. They were unbothered.

3/ The US 1974 Jackson-Vanik Amendment affected China and the Soviet - for “violating human rights.” It created an outcome that favoured these countries. It got their citizens to “rally around their flag” - to be nationalistic, and to perceive the sanctioning states as the enemy.

4/ When the West, including Russia, sanctioned Iraq for invading Kuwait in 1990, Iraq began to sell its Oil through Jordan. The expected collapse of Iraqi economy never happened because France and Russia realized that they couldn’t stand with the US in ignoring that goldmine.

5/ China is partly what it is today because of the humiliating impact of sanctions, following the 1989 Tiananmen Square incident. It realised the necessity of becoming independent of the West. Its choice of sound economic policies have led to emergence of this formidable China.

6/ Back to Africa, when Zimbabwe was sanctioned by the West, the intention was to get Mugabe to respect the the human rights of his people. Although the economy tanked, and the people are still suffering for it, Mugabe was untouched. His lived flamboyantly on tax-payers’ money.

7/ Like Mugabe, the West sanctioned Sudan’s Omar Al-Bashir, denying him access to economic opportunities, along with arms embargo. This only massively affected the economic fortunes of everyday Sudanese—and Sudan itself. But Al-Bashir was living large until the people revolted.

8/ Sudan’s survival during the sanctions rested on China, which acquired 40% stake in Sudan’s Oil, and set up arms manufacturing plants in Sudan. This is where it gets tricky. China won’t forsake Nigeria if the West impose sanctions, because of its vast investments in Nigeria.

9/ The West is wary of China’s rise, and knows Nigeria is a strategic ally in Africa’s geopolitical dynamics. This idea of sanctions would be interpreted as a foreign policy disaster by their leaders. So, don’t expect economic approach to punishing Nigeria over #LagosMassacre.

10/ In Machiavellian sense, the West’s most profitable approach in stopping Buhari’s authoritarian regime is the Libya formula, which is unlikely, and also the last thing we need. NATO has a lot on its desks at the moment, and must keep their eyes on conflicts in richer regions.

11/ The lingering Cold War between the US and China will play a significant role in their interventions in other countries, especially one as “lucrative” as Nigeria. Both great powers seek to retain influence, and upsetting local regimes won’t bring forth the required payoffs.

12/ What I’m trying to say is, Nigerians are in a fix. Our salvation, unfortunately, is our resilience in checking this authoritarian regime between now and 2023 and our wisdom in electing our next leaders. The alternatives before us, as it is right now, are frightening options.