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How will we know when the Covid-19 pandemic is over in Canada?
Has it (the pandemic, not the virus itself) been over for months now?
Is what we are seeing now the virus in its endemic state?
Has it (the pandemic, not the virus itself) been over for months now?
Is what we are seeing now the virus in its endemic state?
The "second wave" isn't comparable to the spring peak, other than "case" numbers, which may reflect testing levels more than anything else.
Deaths and hospitalizations are a fraction of what they were in March/April/May.
Deaths and hospitalizations are a fraction of what they were in March/April/May.
And we know that dying or being hospitalized 'because of' or simply 'with' covid-19 is an important distinction.
The data suggests that this "second wave" may be peaking or reaching a fall plateau in Québec.
This is backed up by data on new hospitalizations in Québec. New hospitalizations for/with covid-19 in the province may have already peaked.
The steady (and possibly declining) number of new daily admissions may suggest that the system will not be overburdened anytime soon.
The steady (and possibly declining) number of new daily admissions may suggest that the system will not be overburdened anytime soon.
Data also suggests a potential peak or plateau in Ontario, albeit later than Québec.
However, a key piece of data is missing: daily new hospitalizations. Unlike the QC chart, this one tracks current hospitalizations (occupancy) rather than new admissions.
However, a key piece of data is missing: daily new hospitalizations. Unlike the QC chart, this one tracks current hospitalizations (occupancy) rather than new admissions.
However, even looking at net new hospitalizations (occupancy one day minus the level the day before), the situation does not appear to be dire. There is certainly no exponential growth.
The pandemic is not over when there are no deaths and no cases.
Dr. Sunetra Gupta of Oxford University writes: "It is important to bear in mind that the attainment of the herd immunity threshold does not lead to disease eradication..."
Dr. Sunetra Gupta of Oxford University writes: "It is important to bear in mind that the attainment of the herd immunity threshold does not lead to disease eradication..."
"...Instead it corresponds to an equilibrium state in which the infections lingers at low levels in the community. This is the situation we tolerate for most infectious diseases (like flu which kills 650K people every year globally)..."
Covid-19 may be starting to resemble the other four seasonal coronaviruses that are currently circulating in our communities.
Dr. Gupta notes that "these viruses can cause deaths in high risk groups or require them to receive ICU care or ventilator support, so..."
Dr. Gupta notes that "these viruses can cause deaths in high risk groups or require them to receive ICU care or ventilator support, so..."
"...it is not necessarily true that they are intrinsically milder than the novel Covid-19 virus. And like the Covid-19 virus, they are much less virulent in the healthy elderly and younger people than influenza."
... The situation can be vastly improved through vaccination, but it is very difficult to eliminate the disease even with a good vaccine." https://unherd.com/2020/10/matt-hancock-is-wrong-about-herd-immunity/
It is not absurd to suggest that we will live with covid-19 much like how we have always lived with common cold coronaviruses. https://unherd.com/2020/07/why-covid-will-become-the-new-common-cold/
Dr. Beda M Stadler, former director of the Institute for Immunology at the University of Bern:
"The virus is gone for now. It will probably come back in winter, but it wonât be a second wave, but just a cold." https://medium.com/@vernunftundrichtigkeit/coronavirus-why-everyone-was-wrong-fce6db5ba809
"The virus is gone for now. It will probably come back in winter, but it wonât be a second wave, but just a cold." https://medium.com/@vernunftundrichtigkeit/coronavirus-why-everyone-was-wrong-fce6db5ba809
We may have reached the endemic equilibrium described by Dr Mike Yeadon.
If that's the case, we may be looking at regional outbreaks that will be self-limiting, and the pandemic is essentially over.
Replication of what we witnessed in the spring may not come to pass.
Replication of what we witnessed in the spring may not come to pass.
Dr. Stephen Malthouse of B.C. notes that:
"The epidemiological evidence clearly shows that the âpandemicâ is over and no second wave will follow. The evidence has been available for at least 4-5 months and is irrefutable."
https://www.marktaliano.net/letter-by-dr-stephen-malthouse-md-to-dr-bonnie-henry-b-c-provincial-health-officer/amp/
"The epidemiological evidence clearly shows that the âpandemicâ is over and no second wave will follow. The evidence has been available for at least 4-5 months and is irrefutable."
https://www.marktaliano.net/letter-by-dr-stephen-malthouse-md-to-dr-bonnie-henry-b-c-provincial-health-officer/amp/
The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine (CEBM) at Oxford University has noted that there is no second wave in the UK now because deaths are just 1.5 per cent above the five-year average and tracking on a normal trajectory for the time of year. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/20/second-wave-not-sight-ons-figures-show-deaths-just-15-per-cent/
Statistics Canada data available to date has not shown 2020 to be a particularly exceptional year, but we will need to see how the data for the year shapes out before arriving at definite conclusions.
Anyone arguing that we are indeed in a second wave and that the pandemic (not the virus itself) continues must demonstrate that there are significant excess deaths above the established average.
If that data cannot be made available and presented, then covid-19 is over as a pandemic far as I am concerned.
We should then end all devastating lockdowns and facilitating policies, and follow the principles of the Great Barrington Declaration.
We should then end all devastating lockdowns and facilitating policies, and follow the principles of the Great Barrington Declaration.
