Merkel is on her way out and many people worry that one of the few remaining anchors of sanity in our crazy world will break away once she's out of office. I think to a large extent, those fears are exaggerated. A thread on Germany post-Merkel:

First things first: Chancellor Merkel has been an extraordinary leader during turbulent times. She's incredibly intelligent, calm, experienced and she has proven that she is willing to stand up for her convictions. An era is coming to an end when she steps down.

Merkel has been a steadfast defender of the transatlantic relationship at a time when doing the opposite would have been much more popular. She was key to sanctions against Russia following its attack on Ukraine. She's firmly pro-European. None of that can be taken for granted

And yet, Germany's role in the world is likely to stay more or less the same once Merkel leaves office. Why? The next Chancellor of Germany is unlikely to push for drastic change and even if he (it will probably be a man) wanted to, he'd have a hard time doing so

Comparatively speaking, German Chancellors have little influence on foreign policy. That's not to say that they have no influence, but they are heavily constrained by coalition politics in addition to public opinion, political culture and all the rest of it.

Being Kanzler or Kanzlerin is not like being President of France or Germany. You have fewer formal powers, you constantly need to convince others to get things done. Want to use armed force, for example? You can't just order that, you need parliament to agree with you

But will Germany's next leader even push for radical change? Unlikely. The most likely scenario at the moment is a Black-Green coalition led by a Christian Democrat. Other coalitions (like Green-Red-Red) are possible but much less likely

We don't know who the next leader of the German centre-right will be, but it will be a centrist of some sort. There are significant differences between the candidates but all of them are broadly committed to the European Union, NATO, multilateralism and so forth

That leaves the Greens. They've already become much more moderate and they'll be willing to make further compromises in government. If you're interested in finding out more about the German Greens, I can recommend this new report by @A_Sloat

https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/FP_20201020_germanys_new_centrists_sloat.pdf.pdf

Germany is set to remain a pro-European power that looks to America for security after Merkel leaves office. If Biden wins, NATO will continue to be the foundation of Berlin's security policy

Germany will continue to be overly reluctant to use or threaten force. Business, as opposed to national security or values, will be the driving force of most of Berlin's foreign policy positions. Germany is Germany, after all.

To the extent that things are likely to change after Merkel leaves office, it won't be all bad. Chancellor Merkel has defused crisis after crisis but few would argue that she has championed transformative change in Europe or elsewhere

If the Greens are involved in the next German government, which looks likely at the moment, I expect Germany to become more willing to entertain further European integration and climate change will be more of a political priority in Berlin

Interestingly, the Greens have been much more critical of the Kremlin and the Chinese regime than many other political parties in Germany. Not necessarily because Russia and China threaten Germany's interests, but because they consistently violate human rights

I've learned not to expect too much of Germany, but there's an opening here: The next German government might take a tougher position on Russia and China. For the Greens, it would be about values. For the centre-right, it would be about national security and interests.

There will be some issues on topics like defence spending, arms exports, use of force but this thread is already way too long. Bottom line: There's enough to worry about in international politics right now. If I were you I wouldn't worry too much about Germany for the moment /end