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1. From my PoV, the risks of a military move that fails FAR outweighs the rewards of capturing Taiwan. The likelihood of failure is also higher than the likelihood of success, which is why we've had the same status quo 'facts on the ground' for more than half a century https://twitter.com/petesweeneypro/status/1318460634867007494
2. To the first point, this argument goes both ways. Were to roll the dice on a Taiwan invasion and win the war, he winds up higher in the Commie Parthenon than maybe even Deng Xiaoping; the guy that finally delivered TW and settled the issue permanently. https://twitter.com/petesweeneypro/status/1318457876323528705?s=19
3. But what happens if the 'Million Man Swim' fails? We're not just talking a high PLA body count, but potentially a lot of those shiny new Type 052D destroyers sitting at the bottom of the ocean and the PLAAF's inventory of Flankers nearly wiped clean.
https://twitter.com/kharisborloff/status/1318779623073705984?s=19
https://twitter.com/kharisborloff/status/1318779623073705984?s=19
4. Zhongnanhai's leadership selection (& removal) process for Chairmanship of the Party might be a 'black box', but I don't see this as survivable. TW's intl status is permanently settled in the other direction if a PLA invasion is attempted but repelled. https://twitter.com/Comparativist/status/1318822139248607234?s=19
5. to wit: the status quo that has existed since the 70's is "don't declare independence and we'll try not to invade." But a failed invasion attempt breaks the deadlock. There's no reason for future ambiguity from Taipei.
The sword hanging over their head dropped but missed.
The sword hanging over their head dropped but missed.
7. A swing and a miss = game over. It would take decades for the PLA to build back up enough to take another swing. The CCP only gets one shot at violent reunification. https://twitter.com/mgerrydoyle/status/1318823678331686912?s=19
8. That said, I think Xi looks around and sees success after success. I've argued before these look like pyrrhic victories to me, but I would not consider doubling down on Carrie Lam's leadership of HK as 'rational.' https://www.comparativist.org/#article/2522
9. From Xi's PoV, every risky gamble has paid off. The guy entered office and immediately took down the head of CCP internal security forces. Less than a decade later be stared down a US President in a trade war and won.
He is not lacking in confidence.
He is not lacking in confidence.
10. This is precisely my fear. I see a political environment that keeps rewarding high stakes gambles and a political system increasingly unable to deliver information leadership doesn't want to hear. No one is going to say 'wait' if he says 'lets do it.' https://twitter.com/Mayank_P_Grover/status/1318828598040539138?s=19
The current diplomatic and strategic dynamics currently place the burden of keeping the peace on Taiwan. Basically, “don’t say the forbidden word and there won’t be trouble.” That dynamic would turn on its head if an unprovoked, opportunistic PLA invasion attempt failed. https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1318835330041040896
