Thread on First Phase Election of Bihar...

1- There are three main parties in Bihar politics - BJP, RJD and JD( U) . If two of these parties are aligned, the coalition is believed to have won the battle. The rest of the parties are having smaller impacts.

2- All parties, including the three major ones, have a social umbrella and in the purview of this, the parties form a coalition. Talking about the last four elections, the mandate of the public was clear and the leading coalition also made a dent in the competitor’s vote share

3- If we talk about the 2010 assembly elections, the BJP and JD (U) had got a unilateral vote of its Social Umbrella and the poll was to ensure that Nitish Kumar retains the office.

4- In the 2015 assembly election, RJD+ JD( U) coalition had received a torrential support of its social umbrella and this coalition also broke into the NDA alliance’s traditional voters.

5- RJD + JD(U) in 2015 assembly elections, enjoyed the majority of Kushwaha, Vaishya and other OBC caste. Traditionally, Kushwaha society is believed to vote for Nitish Kumar or the candidate of Kushwaha caste.

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6- The NDA coalition was also reaching out of its traditional social umbrella in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections. In the 2014 Lok Sabha election, voters were eager to remove Congress from the center and voted to bring Narendra Modi to power again in the 2019.

7- There is no enthusiasm in voters for Nitish Kumar in the in the 2020 election and similarly there is no enthusiasm for UPA Chief Minister candidate Tejaswi Yadav, as well. The masses are not voting for any particular party or leader. Every assembly seat has different scenario.

8- UPA's Social Umbrella appears firmest than the last four elections. The ruling alliance is not able to convince the voters with its claims of development.

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9- There is some kind of uneasiness among the NDA voters. The NDA's Social Umbrella is weakening by the LJP and rebellion candidates. LJP is severely impacting the performance of JD (U).

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10- For the first time since 1990 and 1995, so many rebel candidates are contesting election and most of the candidates are getting good number of votes. The voters who may vote for them are not even visualizing defeat or victory.

11- These rebel candidates, who are fighting on LJP symbol or as independents, are impacting the 40-50 assembly constituencies.

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12-Let's look at the assembly areas of the first phase from Shahabad area to Magadha area.

We find that Rajendra Singh, former BJP organization minister,is on the ticket of LJP in Dinara seat of Rohtas district. This has made JD( U) Minister - Jay Kumar Singh out of the contest

On the neighboring seat of Karagahar, JD(U) candidate Vaistha Singh is having a tough time because of Rakesh Siongh Gabru and Uday Singh, son of former minister Ramdhani Singh, who are challenging him on LJP and BSP symbol respectively.

14- Congress is giving good contest in Karahgar but JDU candidate may win because of his development work..

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15- The former BJP MLA- Rameshwar Chaurasia is in the ring on LJP ticket from Sasaram seat of Rohtas seat. JD(U) has fielded RJD MLA Ashok Kumar as its candidate on this seat. Rameshwar Chaurasia is making a clear dent in both, the RJD and JD(U)’s vote bank.
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16- Sunil Pandey, the former LJP MLA from the Tarari seat of Bhojpur district, is contesting as an independent candidate. The BJP has been kicked out of the fight because of his candidature.

17- In the adjacent constituency of Sandesh, BJP leader and Mukhia Shweta Singh is making a mark and weakening JD(U).
Ex-MLA from JD(U) quota, Shribhagwan Kushwaha is contesting on LJP symbol from Jagdishpur seat of Bhojpur district. RJD has an edge because of his contest.

18- There is an interesting fight in the neighboring seat of Shahpur, two candidates from the same family are challenging each-other. BJP candidate Munnni Devi has a challenger, Shobha Devi, who is her sister-in-law. The candidature of Shoba Devi is helping RJD cand in Shahpur.

19- Ex MLC Hulas Pandey is fighting on LJP symbol in Brahmpur assembly constituency of Buxar district. He has pushed VIP- an ally in NDA, candidate down in the list of favorites.

20- JD (U) MLA-Dadan Yadav and Dumraon Maharaj- Shivang Singh are contesting as independents in the next seat Dumraon. Akhilesh Singh is fighting on the ticket to LJP. All the three candidates are spoiling the game of JD (U).

21- Sudhakar Singh, the son of Jagdanand Singh (the state president of RJD), is fighting in Ramgarh, the hot seat of Kaimur district, is facing a lot of trouble because of BSP candidate Ambika Singh Yadav - former MLA of RJD. BJP has edge in Ramgarh.

22- BJP is losing significant vote share in Bhabhua seat as ex-MLA of JD(U) Pramod Singh and RLSP’s Virendra Kumar have filed their nominations. There is a close contest between RJD and BJP in Bhabhua.

23- JD(U) appears to be out of contest in Kutumba seat, and the final fight is between JD(U) rebel candidate Lalan Bhuiyan and Rajesh Kumar of Congress party.

24- BJP candidate Manoj Sharma from Goh assembly seat is having serious troubles as ex-JD(U) MLA and now a rebel candidate Ranvijay Kumar is also contesting.

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25- Everyone considered victory of NDA in Paliganj of Patna district. But after JD(U) offered its symbol to ex-RJD MLA Jaywardhan Yadav, ex-MLA Usha Vidyarthi is contesting as LJP candidate. Her entry has made this seat very interesting.

26- BJP is having uneasy situation in Bikram seat as ex-MLA of BJP Anil Kumar is also contesting.

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27- Jehanabad seat of the district with the same name, sees the game is slowly going away from the hands of Education Minister Krishnanandan Verma. And the protagonist is ex-BJP leader Ms Indu Kashyap.

28- Ex-MLA Sumit Singh has pushed JD(U) out of contest from the Chakai constituency. The main contest is between RJD and Sumit Singh.

29- Sumit Singh’s brother and former MLA Ajay Kumar Singh is trying his luck on RLSP ticket from Jamui seat. If he gets good number of votes, it will not be an easy walk for BJP candidate Shreyasi Singh.

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30- NDA’s campaign has received a strong jolt from the current or former partner- LJP, depending on where do you look at New Delhi or Patna.

Though the Mahagathbandhan is not able to convert dissatisfaction and anger against the CM Nitish Kumar into votes, but at the votes that rebels and LJP will get, will help Mahagathbandhan directly or indirectly.

31- Wherever LJP or rebel candidates are contesting and giving a good fight, either LJP or RJD+ alliance should win, surely there will be few exceptions.

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32- There is a tough contest between RJD and BJP to win maximum seats in first phase of elections. CPIML is going to perform well and JDU is going to perform very bad. BSP is in serious contest in one seat- Chainpur and LJP is in serious contest in Dinara.

33- Indpendent candidates are in contest in four seats- Kutumba, Dumraon, Nawada and Warsaliganj..

Prediction of first phase of elections coming soon....

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