1) WI/MN data. This is based on early voting modeling from TargetSmart, a D firm.

2) A few words on their modeling. This is NOT a substitute for actual R/D ballots when you have them. But in states such as MI, MN & WI where voters don't get R or D ballots It's all you have.
3) In a nutshell, TargetSmart looks at a bunch of variables on voters--zip code, gun owner, church goer, single, kids, served in military etc. Absolutely not infallible. Again, it's what we got cuz these states don't register/return ballots by party.
4) So here we go :
WI: Milwaukee co. (blue): current returns are 68% D, 13% R, 18% I
2016 early votes: 73% D, 16% R & 10% I
(Ds-5, Rs+3, Is-8)

Waukesha co. (Reddish Milwaukee burb): current returns are 73% R, 9% D, 18% I
2016 65% R, 25% D, 9% I.
(Rs+8, Ds-16, Is-9)
4) contd:
Trump won this district 62-34. Total number of ballots returned: R 51k vs. 6k for D. 2015, Rs returned 18k Ds 7k

5) Racine Co. (Milwaukee reddish burb):
45R, 30D, 25I.
In 55 D, 34R, 11 I

2016 Ds had 7400 vote early
2020 6900.
2016 R 4500 early
2020 10,500
6) Washington Co. (Milwaukee reddish burb)
R 83%, D 5 (!!), I 12.
2016 was 70 R, 21D, 70R, 9 I.

Ds down similarly in Sheboygan, Fond Du Lac, Walworth, Ozaukee, Manitowac.

Dane county (big blue Madison) is up for Ds obviously. Working on how big the student shortfall is there.
7) On to MN, again, no voter reg by party.
Washington Co. (MSP burb):
2016 D 50, R 37, I 13
2020 D 30, R 37, I 33
Is obviously pulled from Ds--potential Trump flippers.

Dakota co (MSP burb):
2016 D 50 D, R 36 R, I 14
D 35, R 34, I 31
Rs down some Ds down a TON.
Olmsted Co.
2016 D 52, R 33, I 15
2020 D 42D, R 27, I 31

8) Three major takeaways from these #s.
First, Ds are down, almost everywhere, a LOT.
Second, Rs are mostly up, but when down, down far less than Ds.
Third Is look like they are pulling from Ds.
9) This is likely TargetSmart unable to "call" certain groups of ballots with their model.

10) Early, but extremely promising, more so in WI than in MN, but still good news for Trump in both.
You can follow @LarrySchweikart.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled: