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On 9/23, Indiana's @GovHolcomb lifted nearly all COVID19 restrictions
https://www.wfyi.org/news/articles/gov-eric-holcomb-lifts-almost-all-covid-19-restrictions
This struck me and other public health folks as dangerous
A month later, how's it gone?
Pretty badly. Like really badly.
Don't take my word for it.
Let's look at data!
Thread
https://www.wfyi.org/news/articles/gov-eric-holcomb-lifts-almost-all-covid-19-restrictions
This struck me and other public health folks as dangerous
A month later, how's it gone?
Pretty badly. Like really badly.
Don't take my word for it.
Let's look at data!
Thread
First, let’s look at Infections over past 2 months
All numbers 7-day moving avg from @COVID19Tracking
Between August 1 and September 23, cases fluctuating between 700-900 per day
Restrictions lifted 9/23
Infections start to take off by Oct 1
By 10/19, over 1800 cases per day
All numbers 7-day moving avg from @COVID19Tracking
Between August 1 and September 23, cases fluctuating between 700-900 per day
Restrictions lifted 9/23
Infections start to take off by Oct 1
By 10/19, over 1800 cases per day
Test positivity was around 9% on 9/23
Today? Around 18%
Meaning Indiana missing way more cases now than they were a month ago
So identified infections AND missed infections way up
Ah you say, but what about hospitalizations?
Isn't that what matters?
3/n
Today? Around 18%
Meaning Indiana missing way more cases now than they were a month ago
So identified infections AND missed infections way up
Ah you say, but what about hospitalizations?
Isn't that what matters?
3/n
Actually, infections matter too.
But, let’s look at hospitalizations
There were about 750 people hospitalized in Indiana on 9/23.
Today, its 1350
hospitalizations bouncing around from 12 to15 per 100K during Aug/Sept.
Around October 5, it breaks free and starts climbing
But, let’s look at hospitalizations
There were about 750 people hospitalized in Indiana on 9/23.
Today, its 1350
hospitalizations bouncing around from 12 to15 per 100K during Aug/Sept.
Around October 5, it breaks free and starts climbing
OK fine, but what about deaths?
During much of September, between 8 and 11 people died daily in Indiana from COVID
Now, number has more than doubled to 24 deaths per day
Deaths bouncing around -- but really breaks out around October 8 or 10
Graph
During much of September, between 8 and 11 people died daily in Indiana from COVID
Now, number has more than doubled to 24 deaths per day
Deaths bouncing around -- but really breaks out around October 8 or 10
Graph
So this strategy of open everything up is not going particularly well
Cases have more than doubled
Hospitalizations have doubled
Deaths have doubled
Obviously, we can't be sure its because of loosening of restrictions
But timing sure looks like it
6/7
Cases have more than doubled
Hospitalizations have doubled
Deaths have doubled
Obviously, we can't be sure its because of loosening of restrictions
But timing sure looks like it
6/7
The bottom line is this
Indiana's current strategy is not working
There is no backstop -- it won't magically end unless people, policymakers act
We all know what to do
Its time for our political leaders to do it
Fin
Indiana's current strategy is not working
There is no backstop -- it won't magically end unless people, policymakers act
We all know what to do
Its time for our political leaders to do it
Fin