The mainline is trouble because you need kids to keep things going and they don't have that.

The denoms appearing at the bottom of this graph are largely mainline (ECUSA, ELCA, PCUSA, UMC).

The groups at the top are largely evangelical(AoG, SBC, CofC, Pentecostals, Non-denoms)
And here's a scatterplot of how education interacts with having young children.

There's a slight negative correlation that's statistically significant. A 1% increase in college degrees leads to .18% fewer parents of young children.
And, really, at the end of the day this is more about age than fertility. It's hard to have kids in your congregation when the average age of your flock is 58 years old.

Note that 5 of the 6 oldest denominations are mainline here.
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