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“Man is a story-telling primate.”
I thought that was just my core belief. But it’s turning out to be an axiom in a theory of politics. This is a work in process but I’ll give you an outline here.
1/14
I thought that was just my core belief. But it’s turning out to be an axiom in a theory of politics. This is a work in process but I’ll give you an outline here.
1/14
The ancient human practice of forming alliances through stories told around the campfire is embedded deep in our brains. In other words, “I believe” and “I believe in” are about personal association, not semantics.
Association is primary; truth and logic secondary.
2/14
Association is primary; truth and logic secondary.
2/14
The key idea here, and what distinguishes this from other approaches, is the definition of a “narrative”. Here, a narrative is defined, not by its story but by the group of people who identify with it. Let’s call them “adherents”.
3/14
3/14
When you adopt this framework, current events fall into place:
1. The 180 degree shifts in Republican statements make sense.
(e.g., )
2. The Senate acquittal of Donald Trump makes sense.
4/14
1. The 180 degree shifts in Republican statements make sense.
(e.g., )
2. The Senate acquittal of Donald Trump makes sense.
4/14
3. General James Mattis said as much: “...even people who believe in him somehow believe in him without believing what he says.”
(see https://www.businessinsider.com/most-revealing-quotes-on-trump-from-mattis-in-bombshell-book-2020-9)
5/14
(see https://www.businessinsider.com/most-revealing-quotes-on-trump-from-mattis-in-bombshell-book-2020-9)
5/14
4. The futility of debating issues with adherents who are captured by a prevailing narrative is evident on social media and cable news.
* *
What this framework suggests to me is that, if we are to heal America’s current divisions, we must focus on people, not propositions.
6/14
* *
What this framework suggests to me is that, if we are to heal America’s current divisions, we must focus on people, not propositions.
6/14
But how does this actually work with groups like the whole Republican Party? I’ve tweeted fragments about this. In the following, you can replace “open lie” by “prevailing narrative”.
https://twitter.com/conways_law/status/1285990003244503044
7/14
https://twitter.com/conways_law/status/1285990003244503044
7/14
The dynamic that makes a prevailing narrative sticky is its “restoring force”; that can range from rolled eyes to death threats, all in evidence today.
https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/08/05/dr-anthony-fauci-security-threats-gupta-vpx.cnn
8/14
https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/08/05/dr-anthony-fauci-security-threats-gupta-vpx.cnn
8/14
Also this thread, in which I introduce the idea of a network of adherents.
https://twitter.com/conways_law/status/1291359016698945537
9/14
https://twitter.com/conways_law/status/1291359016698945537
9/14
The Mafia term “omertà” embodies this idea. The “stickiness” of a prevailing narrative is a measure of the external force that would be required to disrupt the network of adherents.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omert%C3%A0
10/14
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omert%C3%A0
10/14
In a crime syndicate the Boss is surrounded by a ring of Captains, all of whom adhere to the group’s core belief. When this network has a capacity for inflicting inescapable pain it can get really sticky.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caporegime
11/14
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caporegime
11/14
In the recent CNN documentary “The Insiders” you see a view of the White House and the Pandemic Task Force as rings of Captains.
12/14
12/14
This framework gives us a formalism for modeling politics. A *divisive* question is one with a small number of answers whose respective sets of adherents are disjoint. Political parties are organized around divisive questions.
13/14
13/14
Remaining to be explored is whether this approach can be fruitful. I believe it suggests an approach to building agent-based simulators that model group behavior based on the dynamics of individual psychology, where restoring-force models can be tested.
14/14
14/14
