House-district polling is telling a grim story for Trump.

I spoke to @Redistrict about all the private data he's seeing.

"Trump is underperforming 2016 margins by 8 to 10 points in most competitive districts," he told me.

Much more in our interview: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/20/biden-trump-battle-white-voters-district-level-polls-are-revealing/

Some highlights from my chat with @Redistrict.

He says Trump is underperforming relative to 2016 by more than 10 points in upscale suburban districts.

Trump is overperforming in Hispanic districts, but overall this mirrors Biden's big national lead:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/20/biden-trump-battle-white-voters-district-level-polls-are-revealing/

Key point: @Redistrict says House district polling shows Biden getting halfway back to Obama-2012 levels in working class white districts across the board.

"Trump needs to get back to his 2016 numbers in those places to have any chance," he tells me.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/20/biden-trump-battle-white-voters-district-level-polls-are-revealing/

Final point: Trump has to boost turnout among noncollege whites *and* get a higher share of them to offset demographic change and Trump's outsize losses among educated whites.

That's possible, but...

"It's a lot to ask in 14 days," @Redistrict tells me:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/20/biden-trump-battle-white-voters-district-level-polls-are-revealing/