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House-district polling is telling a grim story for Trump.
I spoke to @Redistrict about all the private data he's seeing.
"Trump is underperforming 2016 margins by 8 to 10 points in most competitive districts," he told me.
Much more in our interview: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/20/biden-trump-battle-white-voters-district-level-polls-are-revealing/
I spoke to @Redistrict about all the private data he's seeing.
"Trump is underperforming 2016 margins by 8 to 10 points in most competitive districts," he told me.
Much more in our interview: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/20/biden-trump-battle-white-voters-district-level-polls-are-revealing/
Some highlights from my chat with @Redistrict.
He says Trump is underperforming relative to 2016 by more than 10 points in upscale suburban districts.
Trump is overperforming in Hispanic districts, but overall this mirrors Biden's big national lead:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/20/biden-trump-battle-white-voters-district-level-polls-are-revealing/
He says Trump is underperforming relative to 2016 by more than 10 points in upscale suburban districts.
Trump is overperforming in Hispanic districts, but overall this mirrors Biden's big national lead:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/20/biden-trump-battle-white-voters-district-level-polls-are-revealing/
Key point: @Redistrict says House district polling shows Biden getting halfway back to Obama-2012 levels in working class white districts across the board.
"Trump needs to get back to his 2016 numbers in those places to have any chance," he tells me.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/20/biden-trump-battle-white-voters-district-level-polls-are-revealing/
"Trump needs to get back to his 2016 numbers in those places to have any chance," he tells me.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/20/biden-trump-battle-white-voters-district-level-polls-are-revealing/
Final point: Trump has to boost turnout among noncollege whites *and* get a higher share of them to offset demographic change and Trump's outsize losses among educated whites.
That's possible, but...
"It's a lot to ask in 14 days," @Redistrict tells me:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/20/biden-trump-battle-white-voters-district-level-polls-are-revealing/
That's possible, but...
"It's a lot to ask in 14 days," @Redistrict tells me:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/20/biden-trump-battle-white-voters-district-level-polls-are-revealing/
