Here's a copy of the Washtenaw County public health order telling @UMich undergraduates to stay home. As something a connoisseur of public health orders, let me break it down for you! https://www.washtenaw.org/DocumentCenter/View/18386

First off, the county rightly points out that it's got authority to take this step pursuant to authority under the Public Health Code.

@UMich has some constitutional independence when it comes to its education-related mission, but this is about the public health.

And it looks like (surprise, surprise) infections among students are driving a large fraction of Washtenaw County's cases.

The local health department points out what everyone who's actually been on campus has noticed: that students are still partying. And it's these uncontrolled social gatherings that are primarily driving spread at this stage in the pandemic.

If you think of this order as a targeted effort to get at THAT problem -- parties and other social gatherings -- you'll start to see the logic behind the exceptions that allow for lots of OTHER activities to continue.

Oh, and yes, students now make up nearly two-thirds of all cases in the county.

The biggest concern here is not that undergrads are dying. They're not. It's that their cases will spill over into the broader community. That's especially worrisome when the entire state is facing a big surge in cases.

This right here is bureaucratese for "we can't contact trace all these cases, there's just too damn many of them."

So what's the new rule? All undergraduates must STAY IN PLACE. And because it's a county public health order, it applies both on- and off-campus. Undergraduates who live off campus in apartments or fraternities are subject to it.

But there are exceptions! So many exceptions!

Which makes sense if you think of this as an anti-partying ordinance, not a rigid shelter-in-place order.

Here's what I mean:

You can still go to class! Why? Because it's a controlled environment, with people in masks and socially distanced.

Same for getting basic needs -- these are all institutions that should be taking some care.

And look -- you can exercise! But notice the limitation to two people at a time. This is an effort to say, "If we see you on your lawn with six people playing beer pong, we can tell you to knock it off."

Here's one that will stick in people's craw: if you're a varsity athlete, you're free to do your thing. If the goal is to prohibit large-ish gatherings, this makes no sense.

But if you think of the rule as an anti-partying ordinance, it comes into focus: practices and games are controlled-ish environments and athletes are being screened intensely for COVID.

(Still, you could be forgiven for thinking that football is driving this decision.)

The rest is pretty standard stuff. But the last provision is a real kicker -- it's basically saying, "If cases stays high, we're going to keep this order in place for the duration."

The surge in cases across the country and in Michigan, combined with colder weather that will send more students indoors, makes me think that there's little chance this order gets lifted before the end of the semester.

Here are my outstanding questions:

1. Are students just going to A2? If so, will they take precautions to avoid bringing COVID home?

2. Will they abide by the order or just party in the basement?

3. Will @UMich opt for a better approach to reopening next term?

By a better approach, I mean an approach that incorporates widespread, repeat surveillance testing that gives us real-time visibility into where infections are spreading and allows us to quickly isolate students. We shouldn't be at the top of this curve. https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-19-at-big-ten-conference-schools/?fbclid=IwAR3do4Vu66XaY16ayfBdUw28f6ev2ZHmmkZt7eDp0Aujo9cKHIGLazLB1ec

/ fin