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Michigan State University political scientist Corwin Smidt releases analysis predicting record-breaking voter turnout in Michigan - 5.9M, an increase of 1M voters since 2016 (4.875M). That would shatter the record of 5.04M in 2008 (Obama-McCain)
Smidt has some interesting findings: 'The Democratic Party advantage in Michigan has shifted from a +4.9 D electorate in 2012, to a +4.3 D electorate in 2016, to an expected +4.1 D electorate in 2020.'
Smidt: Registration/turnout trends 'suggest an increase in the relative composition of younger & older voters & a relative decline in voting power of middle-age voters associated with Gen X' - 'not good news for (GOP) considering Trump performs best compared to Biden' in Gen X
Smidt also questions conventional wisdom - says there is little evidence that higher turnout benefits Ds over Rs. 'Despite voterfile-based expectations of extremely high turnout, the balance of voters across the state continues to shift away from Democratic strongholds.'
