[Thread] I’m very pleased to share my latest report, “Afghanistan’s Terrorism Challenge: The Political Trajectories of al-Qaeda, the Afghan Taliban, and the Islamic State,” published by the @MiddleEastInst. 1/10 https://www.mei.edu/publications/afghanistans-terrorism-challenge-political-trajectories-al-qaeda-afghan-taliban-and

The report is motivated by the debate on the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. WIthdrawal advocates argue that the terrorism threat from Afghanistan is overstated. Those opposed argue that Afghanistan continues to pose a major threat, which will grow once the US draws down. 2/10

In the report, I try to decouple the question of the US policy on withdrawal and focus on the political trajectories of actors central to the terrorism and counterterrorism policy discussion on Afghanistan: al-Qaida, Afghan Taliban, and the Islamic State. I make four points. 3/10

First, I argue al-Qaeda looks resilient in Afghanistan, with al-Qaeda chief Zawahiri reportedly still there. It has political cohesion, organizational capital & allies. But the group's int'l terror capabilities are unclear; they are either constrained or well-concealed. 4/10

Second, there are no signs of a break in ties of al-Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban. In fact, there is a firm political basis for the relationship: Both groups fit into each other’s ideology-based political projects. I am skeptical of the Taliban's viability as US's CT partner. 5/10

Third, contrary to factionalized portrayals, the Taliban appear politically cohesive and unlikely to fragment in the near term. Major indicators suggest Taliban leadership is equipped to manage complicated intra-elite politics and rank-and-file without fragmenting. 6./10

Finally, the Islamic State in Afghanistan remains in decline. It is premature to decidedly write off the Islamic State, but for now, there are no clear signs that the group is implementing a concerted strategy to stall ongoing political and organizational fragmentation. 7/10

I conclude with two points. First, I argue that the findings are important on their own but should be seen in the broader political context of Afghanistan. For one, US CT equities must be considered with the demands of mitigating the generational suffering of Afghans. 8/10

Second, the findings suggest that number of armed groups with varied local, regional & transnational aims will find ways to persist in Afghanistan. Policymakers need to be clear-eyed about the major CT challenge ahead, and the likelihood that it will not relent anytime soon. 9/10

Many thanks to @Charles_Lister for publishing, and @mideasteditor for supporting this work. Special thanks to @and_huh_what and @abdsayedd for their insights and feedback. 10/10