1) For you new followers or those with questions about following the #s in some of these states in terms of vote by mail, or early voting . . .

2) We aren't concerned so much with absolute #s but with TARGETS the Ds or Rs have to hit.
3) This goes to the culture of how states vote, but for the most part "early in person" and "vote by mail" have tended to be much heavier DemoKKKrat. Republicans, by culture, tend to vote on election day, in MUCH bigger numbers.
4) So it's natural to look at a DemoKKKrat lead of 450,000 in FL and go "Oh noes! All is lost."

I look at that and go, "Trump won."

Because typically election day Republicans will swamp that. Ds in FL need to be up at least 650,000.
5) If you ever participated in drag races, you'd know what I mean. They have red lights that count down on the "Christmas Tree" 4, 3, 2, 1, then you get a green (or something like that).

When you race against other classes of cars, with bigger or smaller engines you . . .
5) contd . . get, or give, a "spot." You may have a red light on your side but the other guy gets green. (I once raced my 350 SS Camaro against a Ford 2 cylinder Falcon. His "spot" must have lasted 10 minutes. I could barely see him down the track when I was given green.
5) contd . . . I've never passed a car so fast in my life. It was like he was standing still.

6) Or consider 440 meter races in the Olympics. The lanes are staggered, right? The outside runner is "ahead." No he isn't. The outside lane has more distance to cover and at . . .
6) contd . . . the first turn everyone is more or less in the same place.

7) So these "early" and "VBM" advantages the Ds have are in anticipation that they will be BURIED on election day.

8) In 2016, for example, in FL: Ds led on election day by 88,000; Trump won by over 100k
9) But it's even a little more complicated than that. In NC, for example over 65 whites tend to vote R, even though they never changed their registration. So even when they have large leads, many, many of these Ds are going to be Trump voters.

10) Overall, GOP in great shape.
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