1,694,528 people have voted in Georgia, meaning we had just over 211,000 votes recorded yesterday including 159,670 in person votes. That's an increase of 42% over the second Monday of early voting in 2016.

#gapol #gapolitics

http://georgiavotes.com 

In person turnout has been remarkably consistent compared to last cycle, with 40%-70% increases every day. I'm not sure that can hold for the whole early voting period, but that would put us over 3 million early in person voters, if so.

We also saw another 101k 2016 early voters get record their vote. The outstanding early voter population is down to 1.32M, which again, if everyone voted, would take us over 3 million early votes.

So if 3 million is the absolutely bare minimum, what does a maximum estimate of early votes look like?

Well, we're at 1.7M now, so what are some other key numbers.

- 1.3M 2016 early voters
- 1M mail apps out
- 900k new reg voters since Mar 2018
- 186k/day average turnout since

There are overlaps between all these numbers, so you can't just add them up.

But let's say 186k/day stays steady over the 9 remaining weekdays. That's another 1.7M votes, getting us to 3.4M

But that would also leave ~600k mail apps having not voted. That seems unlikely.

We usually see a huge spike in mail returns the final week. So let's give ourselves another 300k votes there. That would leave a "non-vote" ratio of about 15-20% which matches what we saw in the 2020 primary. That may be a high estimate, but we'll go with it.

But we also see a big spike in in-person voting the last week of the cycle. And with so many new voters eligible, and 22% of current voters having not voted in 2016, there's no reason to doubt that happens again this year.

A 60% jump in final week turnout, which would mirror what we saw in 2016, would be another 500k votes.

So 3.4M + 300k + 500k gives us a top-end early vote estimate of 4.2M votes. The total 2016 vote in Georgia was 4,114,732.

Now, the point of an upper limit is "this is almost certainly too high." It shouldn't be considered a projection. But the fact that we can create a reasonable upper bound greater than the entire vote in 2016 says something about the growth of Georgia, and its voters excitement.