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In March, governments across Europe imposed targeted #covid19 lockdowns in hard-hit communities, followed by nation-wide measures.
Today, it's March again in Europe.
Except this time, we had 8 months to prepare. https://www.vox.com/21514530/europe-covid-second-wave-update
Today, it's March again in Europe.
Except this time, we had 8 months to prepare. https://www.vox.com/21514530/europe-covid-second-wave-update
What I've heard again and again, talking to people about the situation in Europe, is that the new wave represents a devastating political failure.
Here's @clarewenham:
Here's @clarewenham:
Here's @adamkams:
Here's @shoffmania:
It's hard to keep track of the quick-changing situation, but as now, there are new measures in just about every country — from curfews to mask mandates and limits on public gatherings.
Netherlands is in a partial lockdown; Wales and Ireland are going into full lockdown.
Netherlands is in a partial lockdown; Wales and Ireland are going into full lockdown.
Schools in Northern Ireland have closed. Towns in Germany and Austria with fast-spiraling outbreaks have shutdown. The Czech Republic and England may soon announce nation-wide lockdowns, too.
In the summer, scientists & health officials started warning that cases were already growing exponentially in many European countries, and that would soon lead to 
in hospitalizations & deaths.
In many places, those warnings weren't taken seriously. Again time was wasted.
in hospitalizations & deaths. In many places, those warnings weren't taken seriously. Again time was wasted.
That we're here again in Europe — fast-rising cases, deaths and hospitalizations increasing, looming lockdowns — was predictable and preventable.
We know now what to do to slow the spread of #Covid19 but leaders didn't put those systems in place.
We know now what to do to slow the spread of #Covid19 but leaders didn't put those systems in place.
So the public endured the pain of lockdown for little benefit & they'll have to endure the pain again.
This time, will people follow rules? @WHO has warned of pandemic fatigue across Europe. Some city and state govs are fighting national measures. https://www.vox.com/21514530/europe-covid-second-wave-update
This time, will people follow rules? @WHO has warned of pandemic fatigue across Europe. Some city and state govs are fighting national measures. https://www.vox.com/21514530/europe-covid-second-wave-update
If the first 6 months of the pandemic are any indication, analyses by @IMFNews and others have shown that, when deaths start piling up, people voluntarily restricted their movements.
So failing to control the epidemic hurt the economy, with or without lockdowns.
So failing to control the epidemic hurt the economy, with or without lockdowns.
There is one sliver of hope: right now, deaths aren't increasing as quickly as they did in spring, and more people are surviving the disease.
But absent a vaccine or cure, that doesn't mean we can treat #covid19 like the flu. Here's @T_Inglesby on why: https://twitter.com/T_Inglesby/status/1318292693735231488
But absent a vaccine or cure, that doesn't mean we can treat #covid19 like the flu. Here's @T_Inglesby on why: https://twitter.com/T_Inglesby/status/1318292693735231488
We know what works to slow the spread of the virus: build up coronavirus testing and tracing capacity, put in place strict quarantine and isolation measures, ready hospitals for Covid-19 patients, protect the elderly and vulnerable, and, for god’s sake, get people to wear masks.
There are examples of many countries around the world — with different political systems, resource levels, and geographies — doing these things successfully. Here's one from Europe: https://www.vox.com/21495327/covid-19-germany-coronavirus-cases-deaths
There places will likely get thru the new wave better than neighbors.
There places will likely get thru the new wave better than neighbors.
But absent building our local and national systems to keep track of and slow the spread of the virus, we'll have to use “the bluntest weapon to control the epidemic” @globalhlthtwit said: the lockdown.
Once again, the poorest and most vulnerable among us will suffer the most.
Once again, the poorest and most vulnerable among us will suffer the most.
We'll all be less healthy and wealthy after this new round of lockdowns.
Already, the first set coincided with the worst recession since WW2. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/06/08/covid-19-to-plunge-global-economy-into-worst-recession-since-world-war-ii
Cancer screenings
, heart attack treated in hospitals ,childhood malnutrition
, domestic violence
Already, the first set coincided with the worst recession since WW2. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/06/08/covid-19-to-plunge-global-economy-into-worst-recession-since-world-war-ii
Cancer screenings
, heart attack treated in hospitals ,childhood malnutrition, domestic violence
These are #covid19 effects we can quantify now. Researchers expect more to come.
"Decades from now, researchers may be talking about the ‘pandemic generation,’” @shwoolf said. He foresees a surge in deaths from unmanaged chronic conditions like diabetes, cancer + overdoses.
"Decades from now, researchers may be talking about the ‘pandemic generation,’” @shwoolf said. He foresees a surge in deaths from unmanaged chronic conditions like diabetes, cancer + overdoses.
Sorry — this was grim. But there's still time to act. It's just unfortunate more didn't happen months ago.
That's all I've got on #covid19 Europe for now. Story ideas? Questions? Ping me.
That's all I've got on #covid19 Europe for now. Story ideas? Questions? Ping me.
And for more on how Europe messed up the coronavirus response, I found this @FT story today very useful. https://www.ft.com/content/efdadd97-aef5-47f1-91de-fe02c41a470a
