The next black swan is a Chinese attack on Taiwan. Signals coming out of Beijing suggest this is on the table. In some ways it makes sense for the PLA to go soon, bc US disarray has opened a window that won't stay open forever, and time is not on China's side. 1/x

It's clear to Xi at this point that China has lost TW hearts and minds for good. Even the KMT is walking away. The US is mulling a deeper commitment to TW. US/TW are also adjusting the force mix to emphasize asymmetric deterrence like mobile missile trucks. 2/x

But at present TW/US forces are concentrated i.e. easy to hit with missile volleys, and TW forces are misconfigured. Their troops are also demoralized and underfunded. None of that matters if the U.S. keeps the PLA from crossing the strait. That is what Taipei is betting on. 3/X

The question on Xi's mind is undoubtably whether American political leaders are willing to fight for Taiwan, and more specifically, whether a contested election would see the military confused about who the commander in chief is. There's also the cost of victory. 4/X

Taiwan could be China's Afghanistan. But the reward for Xi would be near-deification in mainland China, no matter what the intl relations impact, so long as he wins. He can control domestic media coverage and I think China is psychologically able to take big casualties. 5/X

Chinese people seem willing to endorse harsh measures, as in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, so pacification would have support. Would there be backlash at the UN? China can say, accurately, that most members publicly agree Taiwan is part of China. How could they justify sanctions? 6/X

IMHO, China's sole route to reunification is changing the military facts on the ground sooner than later. If the US shows signs of wavering in its security commitment - as it did in Korea prior to the war - I think invasion is entirely possible, and not priced in. /ends

I am not predicting an invasion per se. I think it would take profound US electoral chaos for BJ to rush in November. But U.S. signalling is dangerously muddled. When the US excluded Korea from its security perimeter after WW2, Kim Il Sung saw a green light. What does Xi see now?

Also: many people have already pointed out that this is not a black swan given China has always threatened to do this. Right you all are. Apologies to any black swans I've offended.