At times, it seems that No10 is designing Covid policy based on worse-case scenarios rather than facts on the ground. My blog on the data, and NHS performance https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-likely-is-the-nhs-to-be-overwhelmed-by-covid-

Manchester is being given a noon deadline to accept Tier3 or face action from No10. But Covid cases in the city have been falling for some time...

No10 says "hospital admissions in Greater Manchester are doubling every nine days." But why assume a constant rate of growth, esp if cases are falling? Doing so leads to the Vallance graph, which projected Covid cases doubling every seven days. Here's the latest, vs actual.

Manchester now subject of huge spin operation, including reports that its hospitals are "running out of intensive care beds." One report said that: "By Friday, 211 of the 257 critical care beds in Greater Manchester, 82% of total supply." Such reports seldom state normal ICU use.

82% occupancy of critical care beds is normal for an NHS hospital. Below: figures for Manchester since 2018

And, also, Covid deaths: again, the trajectory is nothing like the first wave.