You won't hear this on any news station that I know of but it's a fact that the closer you get to an election the more reliable the polls become.

On top of that the polls tend to have a solidifying nature about two weeks to a month from the actual election.

1/6

While it's true that October surprises do happen, they generally affect polling by less than a point or two. Enough to really mess up a close election, but not anywhere near a drop to mess up an election with a big gap.

I'm of the opinion that we've reached the point of...2/6

...no return when it comes to the polling. There's no way that anything comes out which affects the polls in and meaningful way at this point.

For starters we've already seen solidifying in the polls between 10.4 and 10.8+ Biden.

Secondly for an October Surprise to do...3/6

...any real damage the ones pushing it have to be seen as reliable and trustworthy. (See Comey 2016)

Not only does the Trump administration not have those two factors on their side but neither does the news media in the US.

So it would basically be impossible for any...4/6

...story to break today and cause damage to the Biden campaign, or even the Trump campaign for that matter.

The Trump's would have to have a Comey on their side, in order to affect Biden's numbers, and they just don't. Trump saw to it that anyone trustworthy got kicked out. 5/6

About the only people that might sway voters at this point would be Tony Fauci and George W Bush.

Fauci could hurt the Biden campaign if he came out against their plans for Covid. GWB could hurt Trump of he endorsed Biden.

Other than that this race has solidified. 6/6

Addendum: And even if either scenario occurred then it would probably change the polls by less than a percentage point this year.