I received the Florida October book-closing voter files last night and was finally able to import it into my database today and run some reports on it tonight. Some interesting changes in the Florida electorate this year...
1/9

First of all, yes the Republicans did have an overall net gain of voters larger than the Democrats did for 2020(as they have for the last 6 years). In fact, the R's had a greater share of new voters than they have ever had in the last 8 years.
2/9

But, that net gain against the D's was actually 39% larger in 2016. And their overall voter registration share is basically the same as it was post-election 2012, only 0.06% higher than it was in January 2013 (but over 1% higher than it was in 2016).
3/9

The Republican gains this year were offset by a larger-than-normal removal of Republican voters from the voter rolls. R's now make up 35.3% of all registered voters in Florida, but in 2020 so far, the voters removed from the voter rolls were 40.9% Republicans.
4/9

On the Democratic side, they did manage to stop the consistent downward slide in their registered voter share this year, raising their share of registered voters in the state for the first time in 8 years, even though it was only a 0.03% increase.
5/9

As for ethnicity, the share of "White" registered voters in Florida continues it's decline, while "Asian", "Hispanic" and "Other" all continued to grow since January.
6/9

Focusing specifically on Hispanic newly registered voters this year, they registered as DEM/REP/IND 31%/27%/42%. Almost 48% are in the Miami area and over 40% of them are under the age of 30.
7/9

As for what all of this means, there really were no massive changes, and no huge swings in the electorate. For the most part the trends that were running several years ago are still running today.
8/9

As for next month's election, the registration numbers don't really tell us much about turnout. The number of new voters is actually smaller than it was 4 years ago, but from what we all see in the mail-vote and early-vote, this is already a very different election from 2016.
9/9