2) If you missed it, you can find it in the link below:

Here are some of the highlights from the show:

PDJT is currently up 5 points in Arizona. Richard will have the final data ready for us by tomorrow’s show. He is still polling in the state.
3) The margin could come in as high as 7 points. Martha McSally is closing the gap when he reported over the weekend that she was down 2. PDJT maybe able to get her over the finish line. Republican women are crossing over for Kelly at a much higher rate than Biden. Biden’s
4) crossover vote is about 5%. Democrats are not crossing over to PDJT. He is leading by double digits with Independents. Richard was surprised that Biden’s lead in Pima County was not as big as HRC. PDJT’s margin in Maricopa was only a few points.

1st generation voters in AZ
5) are voting much more for PDJT. They resemble 3rd generational voters. They come from states like CA, NY, IL, FL and OH (in that order). Robert says these people left their states because of the way they were run. That is why they are voting Republican.

2nd generation voters
6) are breaking heavily for Biden. Robert shared they left their states for a better job and are loyal to the Democrat Party. The youth vote is up in AZ because legalizing marijuana is on the ballot. They are offset by the number of Mexicans in AZ that are going to vote for the
7) President this year.

Robert shared that he looks at two things during early voting. Are the white working class, blacks and youth matching what the polls have been saying. In the case of blacks and youth, they are not. They are down compared to polling data. White working
8) class voters are up compared to their share in the polling. Robert also looks to see if the early voting matches what he saw in party registration data in the past 6 months.

Robert and Richard both said not to lose an ounce of sleep over the fact that Republicans are not
9) voting early. As a matter of fact, this is actually great for PDJT because Democrats won’t have any idea what the Election Day vote will look like. If they had any thoughts of stuffing the ballot box, they won’t know what is needed. Robert says there are only so many votes you
10) can get away with stuffing.

Also a piece of data that was shared that put a big smile on my face was the fact that the Democrats early voters are coming from Democrats that have voted in the last 4 elections (4x4). There are not many if any first time voters (1x4).
11) The exact opposite is true about the Republican early voters. Many of the 4x4 voters are waiting to vote on Election Day while many of the early votes so far are coming from 1x4 voters (first time voters).

ME: this means our President’s ground game is paying off in a HUGE
12) way. They are getting those first time voters to vote early. They know their loyal voters will vote on Election Day. PDJT saw what happened in AZ in 2018. Republicans ran up the early vote count allowing Democrats to game plan during the last few days before Election Day.
13) His plan is working as he planned out so far.

Richard and Robert have our President winning FL, NC, GA, TX, ME-2, NE-2, AZ, IA and OH. That would put PDJT at 260 electoral votes

Robert believes that because NV will be allowed to count votes for two weeks after Election
14) Day and that it was passed by the legislature, meaning that the courts won’t get involved, there is no chance for the President to win NV.

Richard shared that Trafargar put out a poll from WI showing that Biden’s lead is shrinking (Biden up by only 1.3%). He absolutely https://twitter.com/robertcahaly/status/1318210619049496577
15) believes it because in 2016, he had HRC winning the state by 6 one week prior to the election. It was only during that last week did those undecided voters decide to vote for PDJT allowing him to have a very slight lead the day before Election Day.

Robert shared that he
16) anticipates the electorate to be D+2 in PA. Not D+5 which was what Richard had in his most recent poll for PA. Robert also thinks that with the crossover vote that will favor PDJT in PA, the electorate will be R+0. PDJT was winning Independents in PA by 5-6 points in
17) Richard’s last poll. Richard shared that he and Laura played around with the metrics in the PA poll this past weekend. With a D+3, it would be a dead heat. If they went with @Nate_Cohn R+1, PDJT would be up by 2 to 2.5 points.

Richard shared that if it is what Robert is
18) predicting, R+0, PDJT will win the state by 1 to 1.5 points.

Robert bets are for PDJT to win the electoral college (75% confidence). He sees PDJT winning WI, MI, MN and PA. He has NH at (50-50). He thinks 2 states that could shock people if everything breaks right for
19) PDJT are CO and ME. He thinks having the President sending that tweet about Susan Collins actually helps her (+4). GWB Republicans in Portland, Maine will love the fact that she is Independent Republican that thinks for herself.

He thinks the Democrats will win CO and AZ
18) but if you can get good odds on McSally, it is worth betting. He thinks John James is a live underdog. 20% of Michigan voters don’t even know who Senator Gary Peters is. He is the perfect candidate to run against.

Robert hasn’t done much research on the Congressional races
19) yet. He puts the odds right now at 50-50 that the Republicans win back the House.
20) ADDENDUM #1 Larry wrote a great thread about NC. Richard and Robert said the same about the crossover rate in NC. https://twitter.com/larryschweikart/status/1318357488823984128
You can follow @Baba9773.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled: