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1) "Freeper" byecomey does a great job analyzing the purported DemoKKKrat advantage in NC.
2) The NC VBM i* unusually slanted towards Dems relative to other states because older Rs in NC still tend to be registered as Ds. Here’s the proof:
2) The NC VBM i* unusually slanted towards Dems relative to other states because older Rs in NC still tend to be registered as Ds. Here’s the proof:
*In 2016, 44% of all age 65+ voters were registered Ds.
* But in 2016, only 37% of NC voters age 65+ voted Hillary. 60% voted Trump. https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/north-carolina/president
* But in 2016, only 37% of NC voters age 65+ voted Hillary. 60% voted Trump. https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/north-carolina/president
2) contd . . .
*Even if you assign every I & R 65+ voter to Trump, that still leaves a significant (16%) crossover D vote to Trump among the 65+ cohort. It’s probably closer to 25%.
*The VBM & early votes are disproportionately older.
*Even if you assign every I & R 65+ voter to Trump, that still leaves a significant (16%) crossover D vote to Trump among the 65+ cohort. It’s probably closer to 25%.
*The VBM & early votes are disproportionately older.
2) contd . . .
*The VBM & early vote Trump supporters will be disproportionately registered Democrat.
3) A MUCH better way is to measure turnout by county and see if the red areas are doing well. https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/NC.html
*The VBM & early vote Trump supporters will be disproportionately registered Democrat.
3) A MUCH better way is to measure turnout by county and see if the red areas are doing well. https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/NC.html
4) Case in point: Henderson County. Went for Trump 2:1 in 2016. BIG “Crossover Dem” county.
As of today NC has turned out 30% of their 2016 turnout - https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/?view_type=State&demo=Modeled%20Party&demo_val=All&state=AK
As of today NC has turned out 30% of their 2016 turnout - https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/?view_type=State&demo=Modeled%20Party&demo_val=All&state=AK
5) But Henderson County has 21,637 early votes (IPEV + VBM) - which is 37.2% of their 2016 total turnout of 58,174 votes - WOW.
In other words, what you are seeing in NC are "legacy" old-line Democrats who traditionally vote R turnout out big.
In other words, what you are seeing in NC are "legacy" old-line Democrats who traditionally vote R turnout out big.
