Our modelling shows that to make a success of this, we need get viral transmission down to very low levels. A reproduction number of 0.9 or 0.7 won’t be enough, we need to aim for R = 0.5. 3/5

And we need to keep R close to 0.5 for 6 weeks. If we held R at 0.5 for 3 weeks, cases would fall to about 400 per day, but rise again to about 1000 per day four weeks later. If we keep R at 0.5 for six weeks, cases remain below 200 per day until end-December. 4/5

These models are approximations, but so far have tracked the pandemic reasonably accurately; my thanks to @gleesonj and the entire IEMAG team for their work on these models. 5/5