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Why is Ireland locking down again? Look no further than our Covid-19 spreadsheet modellers.
They are unshakeable in the belief that Covid-19 remains a deadly threat to the population. But as I'm about to reveal, they are standing on shaky ground.
Thread.
#level5 #NPHET
They are unshakeable in the belief that Covid-19 remains a deadly threat to the population. But as I'm about to reveal, they are standing on shaky ground.
Thread.
#level5 #NPHET
Meet Professor Philip Nolan, Chair of the Epidemiological Modelling Group on Ireland's NPHET. This man is the key provider of Covid-19 statistical analysis and forecasts to the Irish government.
Think of him as the Irish equivalent of Neil Ferguson. https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1317113738818977792?s=20
Think of him as the Irish equivalent of Neil Ferguson. https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1317113738818977792?s=20
In the thread above, he claims that about 1/3 of all infections were detected by PCR during the epidemic peak in April.
If that's true, and testing continued to find a high % of cases, then total infections so far might only be c. 100k-150k (vs. the official case count of 50k).
If that's true, and testing continued to find a high % of cases, then total infections so far might only be c. 100k-150k (vs. the official case count of 50k).
If you combine that estimate (100k-150k infections) with the view that the death toll of 1,850 is not a complete fantasy*, then you can get to the belief that Covid killed up to 1% of those it infected.
*The official death toll is a complete fantasy: https://twitter.com/GrahamNeary/status/1317880298554744836?s=20
*The official death toll is a complete fantasy: https://twitter.com/GrahamNeary/status/1317880298554744836?s=20
On the other hand, if the true number of infections is vastly higher, the fatality rate is correspondingly lower.
There's also the problem that the virus might not even be capable of attacking all that many of us.
Dr. Mike Yeadon explains both problems: https://lockdownsceptics.org/what-sage-got-wrong/
There's also the problem that the virus might not even be capable of attacking all that many of us.
Dr. Mike Yeadon explains both problems: https://lockdownsceptics.org/what-sage-got-wrong/
To support his claim that only 2/3 of infections were missed by PCR in mid-April, Prof Nolan points to this HSE study.
It tested 1,733 people for antibodies. 33 were positive.
After minor adjustments, it deduced 1.7% of the population had been infected.
https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/scopi-covid-19-antibody-research-study-results/
It tested 1,733 people for antibodies. 33 were positive.
After minor adjustments, it deduced 1.7% of the population had been infected.
https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/scopi-covid-19-antibody-research-study-results/
The study copied the asssumptions of the UK's SAGE:
A. antibodies are present after all infections, even the asymptomatic.
B. everyone without antibodies is susceptible (so we all need to worry until a vaccine is found).
It did at least acknowledge some uncertainty around A.
A. antibodies are present after all infections, even the asymptomatic.
B. everyone without antibodies is susceptible (so we all need to worry until a vaccine is found).
It did at least acknowledge some uncertainty around A.
There is some evidence to suggest that both assumptions are dramatically wrong.
A. Everyone infected has antibodies?
In June, a study published in Nature Medicine found that only 80% of PCR-positive individuals had Covid-19 antibodies after 3-4 weeks. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0965-6
A. Everyone infected has antibodies?
In June, a study published in Nature Medicine found that only 80% of PCR-positive individuals had Covid-19 antibodies after 3-4 weeks. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0965-6
After 8 weeks, only 73% of the symptomatics had antibodies (27 out of 37). Fewer than half of the asymptomatics had them (18 out of 37).
The HSE study assumed there would be no problem detecting antibodies up to 14 weeks after the epidemic's peak.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0965-6
The HSE study assumed there would be no problem detecting antibodies up to 14 weeks after the epidemic's peak.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0965-6
B. Everyone is susceptible?
If nobody is already immune, the fatality rate (e.g. 1%) is still a threat to the 4.8 million people in Ireland who (allegedly) haven't been infected yet.
If 60% of the population must be infected to reach herd immunity, that's another 30,000 deaths.
If nobody is already immune, the fatality rate (e.g. 1%) is still a threat to the 4.8 million people in Ireland who (allegedly) haven't been infected yet.
If 60% of the population must be infected to reach herd immunity, that's another 30,000 deaths.
In August, a study in the journal Cell found 28% of Swedish blood samples taken in 2019 already had T-cell immunity against Covid-19.
It also looked at people with no antibodies despite living with a Covid-19 patient. 1/3 of these had T-cell immunity.
https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)31008-4
It also looked at people with no antibodies despite living with a Covid-19 patient. 1/3 of these had T-cell immunity.
https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)31008-4
This immunity comes from prior exposure to seasonal coronaviruses. It provides a partial or complete defense against Covid.
If you want to know why your family member got sick and you didn't, your T-cells could be the answer.
The spreadsheet modellers haven't allowed for this.
If you want to know why your family member got sick and you didn't, your T-cells could be the answer.
The spreadsheet modellers haven't allowed for this.
CONCLUSION:
Ireland is being locked down again because the modellers think that only a tiny percentage of the population has been infected, and that everyone else is susceptible.
This belief is based on deeply questionable assumptions.
The lockdown is therefore unjustified.
Ireland is being locked down again because the modellers think that only a tiny percentage of the population has been infected, and that everyone else is susceptible.
This belief is based on deeply questionable assumptions.
The lockdown is therefore unjustified.
