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Here's my TLDR on FiveThirtyEight's "8 tips to stay sane in the final 15 days of the campaign" https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/8-tips-to-stay-sane-in-the-final-15-days-of-the-campaign/
1. Keep the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in mind.
COVID is still the top issue and Trump is rated horribly on it.
1. Keep the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in mind.
COVID is still the top issue and Trump is rated horribly on it.
2. Don’t assume the race is in the bag for Biden.
5%, 10%, and 15% things happen. Even if Biden wins the distribution of Senate seats has huge implications.
3. But also don’t buy the narrative that “polling is broken.”
2016 polling wasn't *that* bad and 2018 polling was great.
5%, 10%, and 15% things happen. Even if Biden wins the distribution of Senate seats has huge implications.
3. But also don’t buy the narrative that “polling is broken.”
2016 polling wasn't *that* bad and 2018 polling was great.
Polling is a good tool and is good information but simply isn't 100% predictive.
4. Don’t get too obsessed with comparisons to 2016.
Biden has a higher margin than Clinton did. A similar polling shift would still be a Biden win. *But*, we could have a larger shift & Trump win.
4. Don’t get too obsessed with comparisons to 2016.
Biden has a higher margin than Clinton did. A similar polling shift would still be a Biden win. *But*, we could have a larger shift & Trump win.
Or we could have a shift in the other direction and Biden wins big.
5. Don’t pay much attention to individual polls; wait for polling averages to move.
We're about to get lots of polls and pundits will be able to pick 2 or 3 a day that support their narrative. Don't fall for it
5. Don’t pay much attention to individual polls; wait for polling averages to move.
We're about to get lots of polls and pundits will be able to pick 2 or 3 a day that support their narrative. Don't fall for it
Instead, watch the averages to see if sentiment, on average, is shifting.
6. Beware talk of “October Surprises.” They’re usually overhyped.
On average, in elections since 1972, natl polling averages shifted by an avg of 1.8 points in the final 15 days of the race.
6. Beware talk of “October Surprises.” They’re usually overhyped.
On average, in elections since 1972, natl polling averages shifted by an avg of 1.8 points in the final 15 days of the race.
7. Don’t read too much into the campaigns’ behavior.
Campaigns don't have more information or better information than we do. Anything a campaign says is for the purpose of spin and get-out-the-vote.
Campaigns don't have more information or better information than we do. Anything a campaign says is for the purpose of spin and get-out-the-vote.
8. Don’t get carried away with early voting data.
The early-voting lead for Democrats is largely in line with what polls predicted, and Republicans are likely to draw the race closer with a huge Election Day turnout.
The early-voting lead for Democrats is largely in line with what polls predicted, and Republicans are likely to draw the race closer with a huge Election Day turnout.
