#BoliviaElections #EleccionesBolivia
A year ago, a pause in first-round vote counting set off an explosion of street protest.

While tensions remain high, there are some important differences in scenario this year…

What hasn't changed is that the MAS candidate (now Luis Arce Catacora) leads Carlos Mesa by 7 to 10% in the polls and is within striking distance of a first-round victory.

However, the MAS has lost both incumbency in the executive branch and much power in the electoral branch.

This year's election is not coming on the heels of major anti-Morales demonstrations. Instead it is the left who has more recent protest momentum, largely in July-August.

Had the vote been cancelled, interrupted, or delayed again, we might expect MAS supporters to take to the streets and remobilize. Still can't rule out a sudden interruption if things go really badly for the anti-MAS parties at the polls.

On the other hand, if Arce achieves a 10%+ margin of victory, it will be harder for the right wing to blame incumbency or voter fraud by the authorities.

This is still the message of Luis Camacho's urge for his supporters to guard their votes and not trust the authorities.

Unclear if Mesa, and the broad anti-fraud coalition of 2019 would join him. https://eldeber.com.bo/santa-cruz/al-votar-camacho-dice-que-no-tiene-confianza-en-la-transparencia-de-las-elecciones-y-pidio-custodiar_205076

On the other hand if Arce has a 5 to 10% lead in the count, the MAS may have doubts about losing votes to manipulation, but a strong incentive to focus on the second round race.

Any major post-election mobilization would rapidly become a two-sided mobilization.

Still, violence is far from inevitable.

Given the tensions and the proliferation of inaccurate and partial information last year, please check your sources and exercise patience in covering breaking stories around the election.