In the week that FINALLY sees the end of the transfer window and the leaking of Project Snouts-In-The-Trough (aka #ProjectBigPicture) I have taken some time out to update my #afcb financial forecasts (the usual shovel full of salt applies to these estimates)...
1/7
2/7
Looking at #afcb income assuming:
A) Stadia are open for 50% of season
B) Commercial income reduces by same proportion
C) Loan income falls further than i expected as we’ve sold most of the high fee loaners
Overall income drops to £53m ‘ish...
3/
Looking at #afcb costs assuming:
A) Matchday costs drop 50%
B) No pay cuts (hard to be certain on relegation clauses)
C) Salary bill reduced with further sales
Overall operational costs fall to £64m plus ca £8m of interest costs etc. That’s an operating cash LOSS of £19m 😔
4/7
#afcb player trading comes to the rescue:
A) Summer player sales brings in £79m (assuming we “factor” £40m future instalments)
B) Loanees cost £2m’ish
C) Loan income drops to almost zero (we’ve sold them all!)
D) Instalments due for past sales £19m’ish
So thats £96m in 👏
5/7
On the flip side #afcb owes
A) £16m loan we took out against Mings/Mousset sales
B) £56m’ish instalments for previous purchases
C) £6m interest on summer sales factoring
This broadly balances the cashflow with all player purchase instalments settled.
AND. THAT. IS. GOOD!
6/7
There are a lot of assumptions in here and this forecast is only good to £15m’ish either way (after all it is a forecast based on a forecast). But the take away is that #afcb looks to be in a good place financially. And the club is even set to make a profit as well 👀
7/7
In the week that #ProjectBigPicture leaked, it seems to me that Max and Neill have played a blinder. #afcb looks secure without #PBP and the cherry on top is that TindallBall seems to be working as well.
Mr Robson’s words echo loudly for the next generation at DC.
Interesting study by KPMG on player valuations. Not clear whether there is evidence for a similar/better/worse impact in the less stellar parts of the player market. Either way it does seem like Messers Demin & Blake played a blinder for #afcb, possibly by doing deals early on.
You can follow @afcb_r0b.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled: