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What do we know about leader exile?
(I'm not saying, I'm just asking)
[THREAD]
(I'm not saying, I'm just asking)
[THREAD]
With respect to leader exile, there is excellent work by @DanKrcmaric, such as his 2018 @AJPS_Editor paper... https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ajps.12352
...his 2017 @The_JOP paper with Abel Escribà-Folch...
https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/688225
https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/688225
...and his newly released @CornellPress book. https://www.amazon.com/Justice-Dilemma-Leaders-Accountability-Security/dp/1501750216
A key finding of this work is that, post Cold War, leaders "culpable" for committing mass atrocities have a hard time finding another country willing to grant asylum (see the negative coefficient with stars in the below regression table from the @AJPS_Editor paper)
A leader is defined as "culpable" if they presided over the onset of a mass atrocity.
This closely relates to how @SarahCroco uses the concept in her work in @apsrjournal on leaders & interstate war... https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/deciders-dilemma-leader-culpability-war-outcomes-and-domestic-punishment/509114969EBDD6FAC6DA9323744CDFB4
This closely relates to how @SarahCroco uses the concept in her work in @apsrjournal on leaders & interstate war... https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/deciders-dilemma-leader-culpability-war-outcomes-and-domestic-punishment/509114969EBDD6FAC6DA9323744CDFB4
... and relates to Alyssa Prorok's concept of "leader responsibility" in her @AJPS_Editor article on leaders & civil war outcomes (which also touches on leader decisions to seek exile) https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ajps.12199
Returning to the results table, notice something else: being involved in "Revolutionary Activity" -- meaning attempts to change the ruling regime through irregular means -- makes it more likely that a leader will be able to successfully seek asylum.
In sum, leaders who wield the blunt instrument of state violence to commit "crimes against humanity" find it hard to gain asylum.
But leaders who try legal machinations are better at finding a "out" from their troubles via asylum.
But leaders who try legal machinations are better at finding a "out" from their troubles via asylum.
@DanKrcmaric's work builds on earlier work, such as by @hgoemans in his 2008 Journal of Conflict Resolution article... https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0022002708323316
...and by Michael Gilligan, who in @IntOrgJournal looked at the decision to seek exile under the shadow of the International Criminal Court (ICC) https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-organization/article/is-enforcement-necessary-for-effectiveness-a-model-of-the-international-criminal-regime/F14100C81FB119269C44A7A7855EAB98
Speaking of the ICC & tribunals, great international law work exploring its implications for leaders stepping down, notably @leilasadat1 in @NotreDameLRev https://scholarship.law.nd.edu/ndlr/vol81/iss3/5/
Sticking with International Law for a moment, can't leave out "Extradition Treaties". Turns out, not a lot of work on extraditions, but a great working paper by @ProfEdmondsPoli & @shirktwit was presented at the latest @APSAtweets conference in September!
So keep the following in mind:
-- leaders who seek "irregular legal means" of staying in office can, if that doesn't work out, successfully go into exile.
-- leaders culpable for fomenting (or authorizing) mass violence at home have few "takers" abroad.
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-- leaders who seek "irregular legal means" of staying in office can, if that doesn't work out, successfully go into exile.
-- leaders culpable for fomenting (or authorizing) mass violence at home have few "takers" abroad.
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