Thread by @RealACScouts, *** ADRIAN v ALLISON THREAD ***#LFC go into the #MerseysideDerby on the [...]

*** ADRIAN v ALLISON THREAD ***

#LFC go into the #MerseysideDerby on the back of a 2-7 hammering at Villa Park. After the game, Jurgen Klopp said Adrian is a “good goalkeeper” and that Liverpool had won 9 of the 10 #PL games in goal with him last season. 1/n

#EVELIV

We take a look at the numbers to see if those wins were in part due to Adrian or in spite of him.

To do this we will use the Post Shot xG +/- metric from fbref. Post Shot xG takes into account the quality of the strike as compared to the standard xG metric ...

2/n #EVELIV

... which only accounts for actions up till the ball is struck i.e. type of pass immediately preceding the shot and location of the shot attempt. So PSxG +/- is a better metric to gauge the degree of save difficulty a keeper has had to make

3/n #EVELIV

Adrian’s allowed 10 goals from a PSxG of 9. So he basically let in one more than he was expected to keep out over his 10 games last season. Surprisingly, Allison doesn’t figure much better with a PSxG+/- of +0.6 which means he conceded about as many goals as you’d expect him to

Stylistically, Liverpool asker their keepers to be sweeper keepers, have a good starting position, come from crosses and be comfortable with the ball at their feet. This is where Adrian has badly let himself down.

4/n #EVELIV #YNWA

He has the highest frequency of direct errors leading to a chance or goal of any Liverpool player since he joined. More than twice as frequent as Dejan Lovren from a much smaller sample size.

5/n #EVELIV

Allison helps Liverpool keep possession while building out of the back with a world class passing range. The ball he hits out to Robertson being particularly eye catching. Allison has 54.1% completion rate compared to Aldrian’s 42.3% ...

... for passes longer than 40 yards also referred to as ’launches’. It’s clear that Adrian is way off Allison’s level but 42.3% is comfortably mid-table in the league. So, maybe there is some merit to Adrian being a stylistic fit.

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Problems begin to emerge when you look at how many launches the two players are attempting. Only a quarter of Allison’s passes are longer than 40 yards. Which means despite his world class distribution, he likes to keep it short which is technically the correct thing to do.

Comparatively, 44.3% of Adrian’s passes are launches.

This could mean two things.
1. Adrian really fancies his ability to play long more than he should

Which is probably true

2. The formation around when Adrian receives a pass needs closer monitoring.

#EVELIV

It does seem like he is short on offers for an easy pass therefore forcing him to go long and losing the ball more often which disrupts Liverpool’s play. It is possible that these structural issues existed when Allison was in the team but were covered up by his superior ability

to find his teammates in tight situations. They are both pretty similar in dealing with crosses if anything Adrian has a better claim rate.

#LFC #EVELIV #MerseysideDerby

But Allison is more of a sweeper keeper with 1.31 Outside Penalty Area Defensive Actions (OPA) per 90 with average distance per defensive action of 17.5 compared to Adrian’s 0.72 OPA and avg dist p def action of 13 indicating a lower starting position than Allison’s.

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Conclusion: Jurgen Klopp’s best bet seems to be to ask Adrian to simplify his game and look for easy, short passes that help Liverpool circulate the ball in build up. The team needs to help him more by making him offers for easier passes than has been the case.

#LFC #EVELIV

And given Adrian’s lower starting position the defence might need to be asked to drop 5 yards more than usual.

Whatever else happens, the scrutiny on Adrian will be microscopic for the next 4 weeks.

#EVELIV #LFC #YNWA #BPL #PremierLeague

******END OF THREAD********

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