I know the temptation is there to assume that the Rays, having blown a 3 games to 0 series lead, are going to lose Game 7 too. And maybe they will. But momentum is a myth, and one of my favorite teams to prove that point is the only other Rays team to ever reach the ALCS. 1/

In 2008, the Rays won a franchise-record 97 games and the AL East, beat the White Sox in the ALDS in 4 games, then held a 3-games-to-1 lead in the ALCS against the Red Sox. In game 5, they led 5-0 in the third inning and 7-0 in the 7th. They had a 7-run lead with 9 outs to go. 2/

In the 7th, an RBI single and a David Ortiz 3-run homer (all with 2 outs) made it 7-4. A walk and JD Drew homer in the 8th made it 7-6, and with 2 outs Coco Crisp singled in Mark Kotsay to tie the game. With 2 outs in the 9th, a single and IBB set up a walk-off single by Drew. 3/

Boston bottomed out at a 0.71% chance of winning the game, making this the 2nd-most-improbable comeback in playoff history, behind the infamous Game 4 of the 1929 World Series, when the A's were down 8-0 before scoring 10 in the 7th inning. But that wasn't an elimination game. 4/

Among teams facing elimination, the next three most unlikely comebacks are 2005 NLCS Game 5 (aka Albert Pujols vs. Brad Lidge), 1986 WS Game 6 (aka a million other names), and 2015 ALDS Game 4 (OFF CORREA ON INTO CENTERFIELD!) 5/ https://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/comeback-wins.shtml

In Game 6, Jason Varitek broke a sixth-inning tie with a home run, David Ortiz added an RBI single, the Rays didn't get a hit after the fifth, and the Red Sox forced a Game 7 with Jon Lester going for them against Matt Garza. If momentum mattered, the Rays were doomed. 6/

And when Dustin Pedroia homered in the top of the first, the Sox looked like they were on their way. But Evan Longoria tied it with a double in the 4th; Rocco Baldelli's single gave the Rays the lead in the 5th. Willy Aybar led off the bottom of the 7th with a home run. 7/

And in the top of the 8th, after Garza and three different relievers let the Red Sox load the bases with two outs, Joe Madden turned to his fifth pitcher of the inning to face Drew - someone who had made his MLB debut five weeks earlier and had 15 innings of his experience. 8/

It wouldn't be an earth-shattering move today, but in 2008, it was the move that cemented Maddon as The Manager of the Future, and was a tipping point in the battle of talent vs. experience in clutch situations. Pundits lost their shit because Maddon turned to...David Price. 9/

Price struck out Drew, and threw a hitless 9th to send Tampa Bay to the World Series. Which is why momentum isn't anything. Momentum isn't even tomorrow's starting pitcher. Momentum is just the next pitcher up.

And thus concludeth our lesson. 10/10