This really is a genuine question: what makes you think Level 5 will make people not currently complying with indoor gathering prohibitions (from what we've being told, in private dwellings), start to comply?

NPHET have been talking 'grave concern' for more than a month already.

Is there some behavioural evidence that suggests people currently refusing to comply with relatively clear guidance on social distancing and restricted social contact, will start complying?

From what has been published, the key risk spaces for infection appear to be indoor gatherings of a type that are currently restricted under the augmented Level 3+.

Do we think the 5km travel limit will disrupt this? Do we think this part of Level 5 will be better observed?

Maybe the symbolism of 'shifting gears' to level 5 will change behaviours.

But the key to all this really is voluntary compliance – as we certainly have no capacity to enforce compliance.

It's hard to avoid the conclusion that there are a lot of people on here – many self-proclaimed 'of the left' – who (naively) think that what's really needed is simply more enthusiastic and aggressive police enforcement.

France and Spain, among other jurisdictions, adopted that approach – and all it did was lay bare the limitations of enforced compliance while cases soared.

True, Italy adopted a similar coercive approach.

Though, I suspect what's really helped achieve high level compliance with basic guidance on masks & distancing is the initial death toll

Fear and uncertainty has shown itself to be the most extraordinarily powerful norm-changer.

Don't get me wrong, I'm all for impotent hyper-performance of assertive state authority: but only if there are uniforms to match.