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This has taken me an inordinate amount of time.
I have broken down Ireland's 14-day incidence, by age, across 2 time periods.
The results show children under 15-years-old have the lowest 14-day incidence in Ireland and that's not due to lack of testing, as some thought.
I have broken down Ireland's 14-day incidence, by age, across 2 time periods.
The results show children under 15-years-old have the lowest 14-day incidence in Ireland and that's not due to lack of testing, as some thought.
August 1st-August 14th:
14-day Cases per 100,000 by age:
Ireland: 18.4
25-34: 36.4
15-24: 26.4
35-44: 20.7
45-54: 19.5
55-64: 11.9
0-4: 11.5
5-14: 8.3
65-74: 6.5
75-84: 5.7
85+: 4.5
25-34, 15-24 had by far the highest 14-day incidence, while older people by far the lowest.
14-day Cases per 100,000 by age:
Ireland: 18.4
25-34: 36.4
15-24: 26.4
35-44: 20.7
45-54: 19.5
55-64: 11.9
0-4: 11.5
5-14: 8.3
65-74: 6.5
75-84: 5.7
85+: 4.5
25-34, 15-24 had by far the highest 14-day incidence, while older people by far the lowest.
October 1st to 14th:
14-day Cases per 100,000 by age:
Ireland: 190.6
15-24: 369.5
25-34: 240.7
85+: 192.5
45-54: 158.1
55-64: 148.8
35-44: 142.6
75-84: 96.2
65-74: 88.6
5-14: 75.4
0-4: 66.6
25-34 and 15-24 still highest, but young children now lowest incidence.
14-day Cases per 100,000 by age:
Ireland: 190.6
15-24: 369.5
25-34: 240.7
85+: 192.5
45-54: 158.1
55-64: 148.8
35-44: 142.6
75-84: 96.2
65-74: 88.6
5-14: 75.4
0-4: 66.6
25-34 and 15-24 still highest, but young children now lowest incidence.
All age groups are below the current national incidence except for 85+, 15-24 and 25-34.
What has changed most between the 2 periods is infection increased enormously for older people, while children had the lowest proportional increases.
What has changed most between the 2 periods is infection increased enormously for older people, while children had the lowest proportional increases.
Relative increase from August 14th to October 14th:
85+: 44 times increase
75-84: 17 times increase
65-74: 14 times increase
15-24: 14 times increase
55-64: 13 times increase
5-14: 9 times increase
0-4: 6 times increase
Rising tide lifted all boats but children the least.
85+: 44 times increase
75-84: 17 times increase
65-74: 14 times increase
15-24: 14 times increase
55-64: 13 times increase
5-14: 9 times increase
0-4: 6 times increase
Rising tide lifted all boats but children the least.
We know how many school-age children were tested thanks to excellent journalism from Sorcha Ní Mhonacháin for RTE Nuacht.
Aug 30th - Sep 27th:
Total tests: 314,725
Tests 5-12 years old: 31,138 (10%)
Tests 13-19 years old: 27,514 (9%)
19% of all tests in that period were 5-19.
Aug 30th - Sep 27th:
Total tests: 314,725
Tests 5-12 years old: 31,138 (10%)
Tests 13-19 years old: 27,514 (9%)
19% of all tests in that period were 5-19.
5-19 represent ~19% of the population and 19% of tests.
As healthcare staff and nursing homes are mass-tested on a regular basis, 25-54 and 85+ should have accounted for a disproportionate amounts of tests.
So that 19% represents more-than-thorough testing in children.
As healthcare staff and nursing homes are mass-tested on a regular basis, 25-54 and 85+ should have accounted for a disproportionate amounts of tests.
So that 19% represents more-than-thorough testing in children.
I used a 2019 population pyramid (4,882,498) to calculate 14-day incidence by age.
The other options were the 2016 Census or 2020 CSO quicktables but the former undercounts the population too much and the latter didn't have enough age bands.
It was the best available pyramid.
The other options were the 2016 Census or 2020 CSO quicktables but the former undercounts the population too much and the latter didn't have enough age bands.
It was the best available pyramid.
The case numbers for the calculations are:
Cases, August 1-14:
0 - 4: 37
5 - 14: 59
15 - 24: 155
25 - 34: 217
35 - 44: 162
45 - 54: 129
55 - 64: 63
65 - 74: 27
75 - 84: 12
85+: 3
Cases, August 1-14:
0 - 4: 37
5 - 14: 59
15 - 24: 155
25 - 34: 217
35 - 44: 162
45 - 54: 129
55 - 64: 63
65 - 74: 27
75 - 84: 12
85+: 3
Cases, October 1-14:
0 - 4: 214
5 - 14: 537
15 - 24: 2169
25 - 34: 1435
35 - 44: 1112
45 - 54: 1047
55 - 64: 786
65 - 74: 367
75 - 84: 202
85+: 129
0 - 4: 214
5 - 14: 537
15 - 24: 2169
25 - 34: 1435
35 - 44: 1112
45 - 54: 1047
55 - 64: 786
65 - 74: 367
75 - 84: 202
85+: 129
Sorcha's great work is below.
The positivity rates in schoolkids 5-12 was a lot lower than that of adults.
That was supplemented by information yesterday that the positivity rate of schools mass tested is 1.9% (more than 3 times lower than adults). https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1002/1168953-testing-in-schools/
The positivity rates in schoolkids 5-12 was a lot lower than that of adults.
That was supplemented by information yesterday that the positivity rate of schools mass tested is 1.9% (more than 3 times lower than adults). https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1002/1168953-testing-in-schools/
Children under 15, thankfully, have the lowest incidence & positivity rates in Ireland.
That's a lot down to phenomenal parents and teachers, who should be proud of their efforts.
Adults are driving spread and it is adults who can change that.
Hopefully some of that helps.
That's a lot down to phenomenal parents and teachers, who should be proud of their efforts.
Adults are driving spread and it is adults who can change that.
Hopefully some of that helps.
